Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Sibbov vs Gnistan/Ogeli

Team pages: Sibbov · Gnistan/Ogeli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

Sibbov3.02

Gnistan/Ogeli1.51

1X2

67% 16% 16%

Sibbov Draw Gnistan/Ogeli

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

3-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Sibbov 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWDW

Gnistan/Ogeli 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLWWLL

Head-to-head

Sibbov 3–0 Gnistan/Ogeli (3 last)

Gnistan/Ogeli1-3Sibbov
Gnistan/Ogeli1-4Sibbov
Sibbov3-0Gnistan/Ogeli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sibbov 1609 · Gnistan/Ogeli 1451

	Sibbov	Draw	Gnistan/Ogeli
Our model	67%	17%	16%
Market	67%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sibbov (rating 1609 vs 1451).
H2H favours Sibbov: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sibbov	Gnistan/Ogeli
Goals for / against (FT)	4.7 / 1.5	1.4 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/38/0%	38/0/63%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	1.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:14 +9’	1.33	5.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sibbov 3–0–0 Gnistan/Ogeli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Gnistan/Ogeli	1-3 HT 0-1	Sibbov
08/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	Gnistan/Ogeli	1-4 HT 0-3	Sibbov
03/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	Sibbov	3-0 HT 0-0	Gnistan/Ogeli

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	17	14	2	1	57	15	44
2	Sibbov	14	10	2	2	56	24	32
3	JäPS/47	15	9	3	3	38	20	30
4	FC Lahti II	16	7	7	2	27	19	28
5	RiPS	16	8	2	6	32	29	26
6	TuPS	17	6	1	10	32	28	19
7	Atlantis II	15	5	3	7	29	45	18
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	15	4	3	8	23	38	15
9	Ponnistus	16	4	3	9	23	43	15
10	ToTe/Tapio	16	2	4	10	20	46	10
11	TiPS U21	15	1	2	12	13	43	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sibbov	Gnistan/Ogeli
TiPS U21	3-0 W	2-0 W
FC Futura	3-3 D	0-8 L
Atlantis II	17-0 W	1-1 D
ToTe/Tapio	4-2 W	3-4 L
Ponnistus	2-0 W	3-1 W
FC Lahti II	2-2 D	0-2 L
TuPS	6-3 W	1-4 L
RiPS	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sibbov (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sibbov

WWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	8	1	W
22/08	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/08	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	–	17-0	–	–	W
01/08	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-2	10	4	W
23/07	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
24/06	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	6	6	D
17/06	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-3	6	3	W
06/06	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	3	7	W
30/05	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/05	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	4-2	4-2	1	6	W

Gnistan/Ogeli

LDWLLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	2	0	L
23/08	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-4	5	2	L
07/08	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	4	1	W
01/08	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
22/07	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
02/07	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L
12/06	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
07/06	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/05	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sibbov vs Gnistan/Ogeli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sibbov win (67%). Probabilities: Sibbov 67%, draw 16%, Gnistan/Ogeli 16%.

How many goals are expected in Sibbov vs Gnistan/Ogeli?

The model expects 4.53 goals (Sibbov 3.02 · Gnistan/Ogeli 1.51), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sibbov vs Gnistan/Ogeli?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.