Football · Finland Kolmonen · 04/09, 18:00

Prediction: MPS vs PPJ/Ruoholahti

Team pages: MPS · PPJ/Ruoholahti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

MPS1.55

PPJ/Ruoholahti1.69

1X2

35% 24% 41%

MPS Draw PPJ/Ruoholahti

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

MPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLLLDL

PPJ/Ruoholahti 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

MPS 1–2–1 PPJ/Ruoholahti (4 last)

PPJ/Ruoholahti0-0MPS
PPJ/Ruoholahti6-0MPS
MPS3-3PPJ/Ruoholahti
MPS5-1PPJ/Ruoholahti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS 1441 · PPJ/Ruoholahti 1468

	MPS	Draw	PPJ/Ruoholahti
Our model	34%	25%	40%
Market	36%	22%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS	PPJ/Ruoholahti
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.6	3.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X4.00

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:39 +3’	2.50	4.00	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS 1–2–1 PPJ/Ruoholahti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-0 HT 0-0	MPS
07/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Ruoholahti	6-0 HT 3-0	MPS
02/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	3-3 HT 2-0	PPJ/Ruoholahti
06/10/23 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	5-1 HT 4-1	PPJ/Ruoholahti

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	17	12	3	2	60	23	39
2	ESPA	17	12	3	2	42	15	39
3	LePa	17	11	2	4	37	28	35
4	Poxyt	17	8	2	7	36	36	26
5	LoPa	17	7	3	7	28	28	24
6	NuPS	17	6	5	6	28	24	23
7	GrIFK Reservi	17	7	2	8	32	31	23
8	Gilla FC	17	6	3	8	34	37	21
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	17	5	3	9	25	42	18
10	EPS Reservi	17	3	5	9	24	48	14
11	MPS	17	3	4	10	15	31	13
12	HooGee	17	4	1	12	29	47	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS	PPJ/Ruoholahti
LePa	0-2 L	1-3 L
ESPA	2-2 D	0-1 L
LoPa	1-2 L	3-0 W
GrIFK Reservi	0-3 L	2-3 L
Gilla FC	2-3 L	0-2 L
EIF Academy	0-4 L	0-4 L
Poxyt	3-2 W	2-1 W
NuPS	0-2 L	1-6 L
EPS Reservi	0-0 D	5-1 W
HooGee	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	4 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: MPS (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS

WDLWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
21/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
12/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

PPJ/Ruoholahti

WLLWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
20/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
16/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	6	1	L
06/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
31/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
27/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
03/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	5-1	4	3	W
25/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-6	2	1	L
10/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	10	4	L
04/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS vs PPJ/Ruoholahti?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PPJ/Ruoholahti win (41%). Probabilities: MPS 35%, draw 24%, PPJ/Ruoholahti 41%.

How many goals are expected in MPS vs PPJ/Ruoholahti?

The model expects 3.25 goals (MPS 1.55 · PPJ/Ruoholahti 1.69), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS vs PPJ/Ruoholahti?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.