Football · Finland Kolmonen · 04/09, 19:00

Prediction: Ponnistus vs JäPS/47

Team pages: Ponnistus · JäPS/47

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Ponnistus1.44

JäPS/472.31

1X2

23% 20% 57%

Ponnistus Draw JäPS/47

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ponnistus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLWDWL

JäPS/47 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Ponnistus 0–1 JäPS/47 (1 last)

JäPS/474-1Ponnistus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponnistus 1468 · JäPS/47 1572

	Ponnistus	Draw	JäPS/47
Our model	23%	21%	56%
Market	24%	19%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JäPS/47 (rating 1468 vs 1572).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponnistus	JäPS/47
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	86/0/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	3.4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
07:37 +2’	3.80	4.75	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponnistus 0–0–1 JäPS/47

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	JäPS/47	4-1	Ponnistus

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	17	14	2	1	57	15	44
2	Sibbov	14	10	2	2	56	24	32
3	JäPS/47	15	9	3	3	38	20	30
4	RiPS	16	8	2	6	32	29	26
5	FC Lahti II	15	6	7	2	25	19	25
6	TuPS	16	6	1	9	32	26	19
7	Atlantis II	15	5	3	7	29	45	18
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	15	4	3	8	23	38	15
9	Ponnistus	16	4	3	9	23	43	15
10	ToTe/Tapio	16	2	4	10	20	46	10
11	TiPS U21	15	1	2	12	13	43	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponnistus	JäPS/47
FC Futura	0-3 L	0-1 L
Atlantis II	3-2 W	3-2 W
FC Lahti II	2-2 D	3-3 D
TiPS U21	4-1 W	4-0 W
RiPS	0-1 L	3-0 W
TuPS	0-0 D	3-1 W
Gnistan/Ogeli	1-3 L	3-1 W
ToTe/Tapio	2-2 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JäPS/47 (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponnistus

LDLDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
23/08	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
14/08	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	0	4	D
06/08	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	1	7	W
31/07	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/07	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
27/06	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
12/06	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
03/06	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/05	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L

JäPS/47

LWLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
20/08	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	3	2	W
16/08	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
07/08	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/07	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	13	2	W
24/06	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	5	7	W
11/06	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-0	6	1	W
03/06	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/05	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
22/05	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponnistus vs JäPS/47?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JäPS/47 win (57%). Probabilities: Ponnistus 23%, draw 20%, JäPS/47 57%.

How many goals are expected in Ponnistus vs JäPS/47?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Ponnistus 1.44 · JäPS/47 2.31), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponnistus vs JäPS/47?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.