Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: LPS Helsinki vs Valtti

Team pages: LPS Helsinki · Valtti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

LPS Helsinki2.26

Valtti1.79

1X2

49% 21% 31%

LPS Helsinki Draw Valtti

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

LPS Helsinki 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLWWD

Valtti 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLDLDW

Head-to-head

LPS Helsinki 2–1–0 Valtti (3 last)

Valtti2-3LPS Helsinki
Valtti1-1LPS Helsinki
LPS Helsinki2-1Valtti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LPS Helsinki 1569 · Valtti 1503

	LPS Helsinki	Draw	Valtti
Our model	48%	21%	30%
Market	49%	20%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LPS Helsinki (rating 1569 vs 1503).
H2H favours LPS Helsinki: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LPS Helsinki	Valtti
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	44/11/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.5	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:14 +9’	1.83	4.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LPS Helsinki 2–1–0 Valtti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Valtti	2-3 HT 0-2	LPS Helsinki
16/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	Valtti	1-1 HT 1-0	LPS Helsinki
12/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	2-1 HT 1-0	Valtti

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	18	11	2	5	37	31	35
2	ToTe	16	10	3	3	37	18	33
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	18	8	5	5	51	27	29
4	Tips Vantaa	17	9	1	7	41	39	28
5	VJS Vantaa II	17	8	2	7	55	29	26
6	LPS Helsinki	15	8	2	5	42	31	26
7	Valtti	16	8	2	6	30	30	26
8	Atlantis FC/PM	17	7	3	7	43	59	24
9	HPS II	17	4	5	8	40	45	17
10	Töölön Taisto	17	3	8	6	33	41	17
11	FC Kontu	17	3	6	8	29	42	15
12	PPS	17	2	1	14	16	62	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LPS Helsinki	Valtti
HPS II	2-2 D	3-1 W
MPS/Atletico Malmi	5-0 W	2-1 W
Töölön Taisto	4-1 W	1-1 D
PPS	1-2 L	3-0 W
PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-0 W	1-0 W
VJS Vantaa II	0-3 L	4-3 W
FC Kontu	4-3 W	2-2 D
Tips Vantaa	7-4 W	2-3 L
ToTe	3-1 W	0-2 L
Atlantis FC/PM	4-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LPS Helsinki (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LPS Helsinki

WWWWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
22/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	8	6	W
14/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
07/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
30/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	9	L
26/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-3	0	1	W
17/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	3-2	7-4	2	4	W
13/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	5	2	W

Valtti

WWWWLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
21/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
14/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
29/07	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	6	6	L
24/07	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-3	5	4	W
26/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	2	11	W
12/06	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
05/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LPS Helsinki vs Valtti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LPS Helsinki win (49%). Probabilities: LPS Helsinki 49%, draw 21%, Valtti 31%.

How many goals are expected in LPS Helsinki vs Valtti?

The model expects 4.05 goals (LPS Helsinki 2.26 · Valtti 1.79), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LPS Helsinki vs Valtti?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.