Football · Finland Kolmonen · 16/09, 18:00

Prediction: FCJ Blackbird vs JPS

Team pages: FCJ Blackbird · JPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

FCJ Blackbird1.56

JPS2.29

1X2

26% 20% 54%

FCJ Blackbird Draw JPS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FCJ Blackbird 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLLDWW

JPS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

FCJ Blackbird 2–2–2 JPS (6 last)

JPS1-1FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird1-1JPS
JPS3-2FCJ Blackbird
JPS2-1FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird3-1JPS
JPS1-2FCJ Blackbird

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FCJ Blackbird 1502 · JPS 1598

	FCJ Blackbird	Draw	JPS
Our model	25%	21%	53%
Market	26%	19%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JPS (rating 1502 vs 1598).
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FCJ Blackbird	JPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2	3.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	1.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/17/17%	38/63/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6	2.3 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.75

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.73 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.84
2	1.53 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +19’	3.90	4.75	1.53
16:39 +4’	3.40▼	4.75	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +42’	3.73	4.84	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FCJ Blackbird 2–2–2 JPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	1-1 HT 1-1	FCJ Blackbird
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	1-1 HT 0-1	JPS
01/10/23 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	3-2 HT 1-2	FCJ Blackbird
16/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	2-1 HT 0-1	FCJ Blackbird
28/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	3-1 HT 2-1	JPS
20/04/22 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	1-2 HT 0-0	FCJ Blackbird

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	18	13	5	0	62	14	44
2	FCJ Blackbird	18	9	5	4	49	33	32
3	FC Metso	18	9	3	6	48	39	30
4	KeuPa	17	8	6	3	39	33	30
5	JJK/2	16	6	1	9	29	49	19
6	FC Vaajakoski II	19	5	2	12	32	65	17
7	Savon Pallo	18	4	3	11	35	45	15
8	Komeetat	18	3	3	12	24	40	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FCJ Blackbird	JPS
Komeetat	3-2 W	6-3 W
Savon Pallo	4-2 W	2-1 W
FC Vaajakoski II	2-2 D	8-0 W
FC Metso	1-4 L	2-1 W
KeuPa	2-3 L	1-1 D
JJK/2	6-0 W	8-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JPS (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FCJ Blackbird

LLWDWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
04/09	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
28/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/08	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-4	4	6	L
14/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-3	5	2	L
07/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	12	1	W
29/07	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L

JPS

WDDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
08/09	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
04/09	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	–	6-3	–	–	W
28/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
21/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	8	0	W
05/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	8-0	–	–	W
29/07	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
17/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
24/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	8	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FCJ Blackbird vs JPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JPS win (54%). Probabilities: FCJ Blackbird 26%, draw 20%, JPS 54%.

How many goals are expected in FCJ Blackbird vs JPS?

The model expects 3.85 goals (FCJ Blackbird 1.56 · JPS 2.29), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FCJ Blackbird vs JPS?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.