Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: LBK vs FC Ylivieska

Team pages: LBK · FC Ylivieska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

LBK1.91

FC Ylivieska2.37

1X2

32% 20% 49%

LBK Draw FC Ylivieska

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

LBK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLDLL

FC Ylivieska 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLDWD

Head-to-head

LBK 0–3 FC Ylivieska (3 last)

FC Ylivieska4-1LBK
FC Ylivieska4-3LBK
LBK2-3FC Ylivieska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LBK 1488 · FC Ylivieska 1539

	LBK	Draw	FC Ylivieska
Our model	31%	21%	48%
Market	32%	19%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ylivieska (rating 1488 vs 1539).
H2H favours FC Ylivieska: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LBK	FC Ylivieska
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.6	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	83/17/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.8	1 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.75

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.12 ★
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:17 +5’	2.90	4.50	1.83
22:43 +13’	2.80▼	4.75▲	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:19 +61’	3.08	4.11	1.79
09:03 +40’	3.08	4.20▲	1.77▼
11:01 +68’	3.12▲	4.29▲	1.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LBK 0–0–3 FC Ylivieska

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	4-1 HT 3-1	LBK
21/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	4-3 HT 2-2	LBK
27/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Ylivieska

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	19	15	2	2	61	15	47
2	FC Kiisto	20	10	4	6	48	30	34
3	SIF	19	10	3	6	43	35	33
4	FC Ylivieska	19	9	4	6	44	41	31
5	Virkia	19	8	3	8	39	40	27
6	VPV Pallo-Veikot	18	7	2	9	23	27	23
7	SJK-j	19	6	5	8	30	36	23
8	Sporting Kristina	18	6	4	8	27	33	22
9	Nykarleby IK	19	6	4	9	28	42	22
10	LBK	19	6	1	12	27	51	19
11	KPV Akatemia	19	4	2	13	36	56	14

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LBK	FC Ylivieska
Nykarleby IK	1-2 L	2-1 W
VIFK	0-8 L	1-1 D
FC Kiisto	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sporting Kristina	2-3 L	2-0 W
Virkia	2-1 W	3-2 W
KPV Akatemia	3-1 W	2-2 D
VPV Pallo-Veikot	3-2 W	1-0 W
SJK-j	4-2 W	2-2 D
SIF	0-2 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LBK

LLWWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
03/09	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L
28/08	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
13/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
30/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	1	3	W
16/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
02/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-4	5	5	L

FC Ylivieska

LWWDWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/09	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/09	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/08	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-2	3-4	2	6	L
19/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
13/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
30/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	1	11	D
23/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
16/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LBK vs FC Ylivieska?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Ylivieska win (49%). Probabilities: LBK 32%, draw 20%, FC Ylivieska 49%.

How many goals are expected in LBK vs FC Ylivieska?

The model expects 4.29 goals (LBK 1.91 · FC Ylivieska 2.37), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LBK vs FC Ylivieska?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.