Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Virkia vs VIFK

Team pages: Virkia · VIFK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

Virkia1.63

VIFK2.66

1X2

22% 18% 59%

Virkia Draw VIFK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Virkia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDLLW

VIFK 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Virkia 0–3 VIFK (3 last)

VIFK3-1Virkia
Virkia0-1VIFK
VIFK5-1Virkia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virkia 1473 · VIFK 1597

	Virkia	Draw	VIFK
Our model	22%	19%	59%
Market	22%	18%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VIFK (rating 1473 vs 1597).
H2H favours VIFK: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virkia	VIFK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.8	3.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.00

X5.00

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:17 +5’	4.00	5.00	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Virkia 0–0–3 VIFK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	VIFK	3-1 HT 1-0	Virkia
18/09/16 Finland Kakkonen Group C	Virkia	0-1 HT 0-0	VIFK
05/05/16 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VIFK	5-1 HT 1-0	Virkia

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	19	15	2	2	61	15	47
2	FC Kiisto	20	10	4	6	48	30	34
3	SIF	19	10	3	6	43	35	33
4	FC Ylivieska	19	9	4	6	44	41	31
5	Virkia	19	8	3	8	39	40	27
6	VPV Pallo-Veikot	18	7	2	9	23	27	23
7	SJK-j	19	6	5	8	30	36	23
8	Sporting Kristina	18	6	4	8	27	33	22
9	Nykarleby IK	19	6	4	9	28	42	22
10	LBK	19	6	1	12	27	51	19
11	KPV Akatemia	19	4	2	13	36	56	14

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virkia	VIFK
SJK-j	5-2 W	1-2 L
FC Kiisto	2-5 L	3-1 W
SIF	0-5 L	3-1 W
Sporting Kristina	4-4 D	5-1 W
FC Ylivieska	2-3 L	1-1 D
LBK	1-2 L	8-0 W
Nykarleby IK	2-1 W	3-1 W
KPV Akatemia	4-2 W	4-0 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: VIFK (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virkia

LLWWLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	5-2	–	–	W
11/09	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-5	6	1	L
05/09	SIF Finland Kolmonen	–	0-5	–	–	L
29/08	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	4-4	–	–	D
19/08	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	11	3	L
13/08	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	7	6	W
16/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	1	3	L

VIFK

WWDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/09	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
03/09	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	8-0	–	–	W
26/08	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
21/08	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
13/08	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
07/08	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	9	8	W
30/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	11	D
23/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
29/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virkia vs VIFK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VIFK win (59%). Probabilities: Virkia 22%, draw 18%, VIFK 59%.

How many goals are expected in Virkia vs VIFK?

The model expects 4.29 goals (Virkia 1.63 · VIFK 2.66), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Virkia vs VIFK?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.