Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Tampere Utd II vs TP-T

Team pages: Tampere Utd II · TP-T

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

Tampere Utd II2.38

TP-T1.43

1X2

58% 20% 22%

Tampere Utd II Draw TP-T

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Tampere Utd II 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWWWLW

TP-T 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Tampere Utd II 3–3 TP-T (6 last)

TP-T0-2Tampere Utd II
Tampere Utd II1-0TP-T
TP-T1-0Tampere Utd II
TP-T3-6Tampere Utd II
TP-T1-0Tampere Utd II
Tampere Utd II0-3TP-T

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampere Utd II 1569 · TP-T 1527

	Tampere Utd II	Draw	TP-T
Our model	58%	21%	21%
Market	58%	20%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampere Utd II (rating 1569 vs 1527).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampere Utd II	TP-T
Goals for / against (FT)	3.8 / 1.1	2.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	78/0/22%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5.3	2.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.56
X	5.00 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.36 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:17 +5’	1.40	5.00	5.00
08:17 +4’	1.53▲	4.50▼	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:01 +79’	1.55	4.05	4.22
09:03 +41’	1.54▼	4.08▲	4.27▲
11:00 +69’	1.56▲	4.14▲	4.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampere Utd II 3–0–3 TP-T

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	0-2 HT 0-1	Tampere Utd II
13/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Tampere Utd II	1-0 HT 1-0	TP-T
05/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	1-0 HT 1-0	Tampere Utd II
02/02/25 Europe Friendlies	TP-T	3-6 HT 1-1	Tampere Utd II
05/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	1-0 HT 0-0	Tampere Utd II
09/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	Tampere Utd II	0-3 HT 0-0	TP-T

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	21	20	1	0	89	18	61
2	TPV II	21	17	1	3	66	28	52
3	Tampere Utd II	20	14	3	3	57	19	45
4	NoPS	21	14	2	5	69	29	44
5	TP-T	19	8	2	9	45	37	26
6	FC LeKi	20	8	2	10	44	43	26
7	FC Haka Juniors	20	8	1	11	41	57	25
8	Ylojarvi United	20	7	2	11	37	45	23
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	21	7	2	12	30	48	23
10	Fish United	21	4	2	15	27	69	14
11	ACE	20	4	1	15	34	58	13
12	TP-49	20	1	1	18	21	109	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampere Utd II	TP-T
NoPS	2-1 W	1-5 L
FC LeKi	1-3 L	2-0 W
TP-49	16-0 W	11-2 W
Fish United	6-1 W	4-1 W
Ylojarvi United	3-0 W	1-0 W
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Haka Juniors	2-2 D	7-0 W
FC Lasten	1-1 D	0-3 L
TPV II	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tampere Utd II (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tampere Utd II

LDDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
05/09	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	16-0	13	4	W
27/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	3-0	6-1	1	3	W
20/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
15/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
08/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
28/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
25/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
04/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	5	6	L

TP-T

WLWLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/09	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-5	4	4	L
05/09	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
27/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
18/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	9	1	W
13/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	5-0	11-2	10	0	W
06/08	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
30/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
22/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
17/07	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampere Utd II vs TP-T?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampere Utd II win (58%). Probabilities: Tampere Utd II 58%, draw 20%, TP-T 22%.

How many goals are expected in Tampere Utd II vs TP-T?

The model expects 3.81 goals (Tampere Utd II 2.38 · TP-T 1.43), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampere Utd II vs TP-T?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.