Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 12/09, 13:30

Prediction: KV Vesturbaer vs Ymir Kopavogur

Team pages: KV Vesturbaer · Ymir Kopavogur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.46Total

KV Vesturbaer2.21

Ymir Kopavogur2.26

1X2

39% 20% 41%

KV Vesturbaer Draw Ymir Kopavogur

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

KV Vesturbaer 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Ymir Kopavogur 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

KV Vesturbaer 1–2–1 Ymir Kopavogur (4 last)

Ymir Kopavogur2-3KV Vesturbaer
KV Vesturbaer3-5Ymir Kopavogur
Ymir Kopavogur1-1KV Vesturbaer
Ymir Kopavogur2-2KV Vesturbaer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KV Vesturbaer 1496 · Ymir Kopavogur 1457

	KV Vesturbaer	Draw	Ymir Kopavogur
Our model	39%	21%	41%
Market	39%	20%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KV Vesturbaer	Ymir Kopavogur
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.4	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	1.9 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.31
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.61 ★
2	1.83 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +5’	2.80	4.75	1.83
17:50 +9’	2.30▼	4.50▼	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +137’	2.33	4.40	2.23
05:21 +54’	2.33	4.43▲	2.22▼
09:35 +22’	2.31▼	4.61▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KV Vesturbaer 1–2–1 Ymir Kopavogur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Iceland 3 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	2-3 HT 0-1	KV Vesturbaer
06/09/25 Iceland 3 Deild	KV Vesturbaer	3-5 HT 0-3	Ymir Kopavogur
29/06/25 Iceland 3 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	1-1 HT 1-1	KV Vesturbaer
12/04/18 Iceland Cup	Ymir Kopavogur	2-2 HT 2-1	KV Vesturbaer

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	21	14	3	4	56	22	45
2	KH Hlidarendi	21	12	5	4	62	28	41
3	Tindastoll	21	13	2	6	50	35	41
4	Reynir Sandgerdi	21	12	3	6	57	42	39
5	KV Vesturbaer	21	9	3	9	53	58	30
6	Sindri	21	8	3	10	40	46	27
7	KF Fjallabyggd	21	6	9	6	29	35	27
8	Hottur/Huginn	21	6	8	7	30	34	26
9	Augnablik Kopavogur	21	7	3	11	37	47	24
10	Ymir Kopavogur	21	6	5	10	34	46	23
11	KA Asvellir	21	7	1	13	39	64	22
12	FC Arbaer	21	2	3	16	31	61	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KV Vesturbaer	Ymir Kopavogur
Vidir Gardur	1-5 L	1-5 L
Sindri	2-2 D	1-3 L
KH Hlidarendi	1-4 L	1-0 W
Augnablik Kopavogur	0-1 L	1-3 L
Tindastoll	2-3 L	1-2 L
KF Fjallabyggd	4-4 D	1-1 D
Reynir Sandgerdi	6-3 W	2-0 W
Hottur/Huginn	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Arbaer	2-0 W	4-3 W
KA Asvellir	3-1 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: KV Vesturbaer (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KV Vesturbaer

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	1-3	1-5	1	8	L
29/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
23/08	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-4	6	4	L
19/08	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
15/08	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	2-4	4-4	7	5	D
29/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	6-3	7	2	W
25/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/07	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/07	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	3-1	4	3	W

Ymir Kopavogur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	2-0	4	10	W
29/08	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	2-2	4-3	4	5	W
19/08	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	2-5	11	5	L
15/08	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
11/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-5	0	2	L
24/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
17/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-2	0	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KV Vesturbaer vs Ymir Kopavogur?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ymir Kopavogur win (41%). Probabilities: KV Vesturbaer 39%, draw 20%, Ymir Kopavogur 41%.

How many goals are expected in KV Vesturbaer vs Ymir Kopavogur?

The model expects 4.46 goals (KV Vesturbaer 2.21 · Ymir Kopavogur 2.26), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KV Vesturbaer vs Ymir Kopavogur?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.