Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Vidir Gardur vs KV Vesturbaer

Team pages: Vidir Gardur · KV Vesturbaer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Vidir Gardur3.03

KV Vesturbaer1.32

1X2

72% 15% 14%

Vidir Gardur Draw KV Vesturbaer

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Vidir Gardur 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWWWL

KV Vesturbaer 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLLLD

Head-to-head

Vidir Gardur 2–1–2 KV Vesturbaer (5 last)

KV Vesturbaer5-3Vidir Gardur
KV Vesturbaer1-0Vidir Gardur
Vidir Gardur8-0KV Vesturbaer
KV Vesturbaer0-3Vidir Gardur
Vidir Gardur2-2KV Vesturbaer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vidir Gardur 1544 · KV Vesturbaer 1518

	Vidir Gardur	Draw	KV Vesturbaer
Our model	71%	16%	13%
Market	72%	14%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vidir Gardur	KV Vesturbaer
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.7	2.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 7.7	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.25

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.80

Under 4.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25
X	7.00 → 6.25▼	Pinn 6.31
2	8.50 → 6.50▼	Pinn 7.25 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +6’	1.18	7.00	8.50
19:43 +14’	1.25▲	6.25▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +4’	1.23	6.31	7.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vidir Gardur 2–1–2 KV Vesturbaer

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Iceland 3 Deild	KV Vesturbaer	5-3 HT 3-1	Vidir Gardur
21/08/24 Iceland 3 Deild	KV Vesturbaer	1-0 HT 0-0	Vidir Gardur
14/06/24 Iceland 3 Deild	Vidir Gardur	8-0 HT 2-0	KV Vesturbaer
02/08/17 Iceland 2 Deild	KV Vesturbaer	0-3	Vidir Gardur
26/05/17 Iceland 2 Deild	Vidir Gardur	2-2	KV Vesturbaer

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	20	13	3	4	51	21	42
2	Tindastoll	20	13	2	5	49	32	41
3	Reynir Sandgerdi	20	12	3	5	57	40	39
4	KH Hlidarendi	20	11	5	4	57	28	38
5	KV Vesturbaer	20	9	3	8	52	53	30
6	KF Fjallabyggd	20	6	8	6	27	33	26
7	Augnablik Kopavogur	20	7	3	10	37	42	24
8	Sindri	20	7	3	10	37	45	24
9	Hottur/Huginn	20	5	8	7	26	33	23
10	KA Asvellir	20	7	1	12	38	60	22
11	Ymir Kopavogur	20	5	5	10	32	46	20
12	FC Arbaer	20	2	2	16	29	59	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vidir Gardur	KV Vesturbaer
Reynir Sandgerdi	1-2 L	6-3 W
Hottur/Huginn	3-0 W	1-1 D
FC Arbaer	4-2 W	2-0 W
KA Asvellir	4-0 W	3-1 W
Ymir Kopavogur	5-1 W	3-2 W
KF Fjallabyggd	5-0 W	4-4 D
Sindri	0-1 L	2-2 D
KH Hlidarendi	1-1 D	1-4 L
Augnablik Kopavogur	0-0 D	0-1 L
Tindastoll	3-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vidir Gardur (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vidir Gardur

WDDLWWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
23/08	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/08	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	4-2	11	3	W
14/08	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	4-0	12	2	W
08/08	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	5-1	7	2	W
29/07	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
25/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
13/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
04/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	3-0	3	7	W

KV Vesturbaer

WWWDWDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
23/08	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-4	6	4	L
19/08	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
15/08	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	2-4	4-4	7	5	D
29/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	6-3	7	2	W
25/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/07	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/07	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
02/07	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vidir Gardur vs KV Vesturbaer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vidir Gardur win (72%). Probabilities: Vidir Gardur 72%, draw 15%, KV Vesturbaer 14%.

How many goals are expected in Vidir Gardur vs KV Vesturbaer?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Vidir Gardur 3.03 · KV Vesturbaer 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vidir Gardur vs KV Vesturbaer?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.