Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: KF Fjallabyggd vs KH Hlidarendi

Team pages: KF Fjallabyggd · KH Hlidarendi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

KF Fjallabyggd1.37

KH Hlidarendi2.07

1X2

25% 22% 53%

KF Fjallabyggd Draw KH Hlidarendi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Fjallabyggd 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDDWLD

KH Hlidarendi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDWLW

Head-to-head

KF Fjallabyggd 3–0 KH Hlidarendi (3 last)

KH Hlidarendi0-1KF Fjallabyggd
KH Hlidarendi0-1KF Fjallabyggd
KF Fjallabyggd5-1KH Hlidarendi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Fjallabyggd 1483 · KH Hlidarendi 1551

	KF Fjallabyggd	Draw	KH Hlidarendi
Our model	24%	23%	53%
Market	26%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KH Hlidarendi (rating 1483 vs 1551).
H2H favours KF Fjallabyggd: 3-0-0.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Fjallabyggd	KH Hlidarendi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	3.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 7.4	3.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.33

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.51
2	1.73 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.82 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:43 +4’	3.25	4.50	1.73
10:39 +2’	4.00▲	4.50	1.55▼
18:37 +5’	3.50▼	4.33▼	1.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +65’	2.99	4.51	1.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Fjallabyggd 3–0–0 KH Hlidarendi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Iceland 3 Deild	KH Hlidarendi	0-1 HT 0-1	KF Fjallabyggd
27/07/19 Iceland 3 Deild	KH Hlidarendi	0-1 HT 0-1	KF Fjallabyggd
18/05/19 Iceland 3 Deild	KF Fjallabyggd	5-1	KH Hlidarendi

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	21	14	3	4	56	22	45
2	KH Hlidarendi	21	12	5	4	62	28	41
3	Tindastoll	21	13	2	6	50	35	41
4	Reynir Sandgerdi	21	12	3	6	57	42	39
5	KV Vesturbaer	21	9	3	9	53	58	30
6	Sindri	21	8	3	10	40	46	27
7	KF Fjallabyggd	21	6	9	6	29	35	27
8	Hottur/Huginn	21	6	8	7	30	34	26
9	Augnablik Kopavogur	21	7	3	11	37	47	24
10	Ymir Kopavogur	21	6	5	10	34	46	23
11	KA Asvellir	21	7	1	13	39	64	22
12	FC Arbaer	21	2	3	16	31	61	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Fjallabyggd	KH Hlidarendi
FC Arbaer	2-2 D	2-1 W
Augnablik Kopavogur	0-2 L	5-0 W
KA Asvellir	3-2 W	7-0 W
Tindastoll	1-1 D	1-3 L
Ymir Kopavogur	1-1 D	0-1 L
KV Vesturbaer	4-4 D	4-1 W
Vidir Gardur	0-5 L	1-1 D
Reynir Sandgerdi	0-3 L	2-2 D
Sindri	2-0 W	5-3 W
Hottur/Huginn	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 3 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KH Hlidarendi (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Fjallabyggd

DWLLDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
23/08	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	3-2	6	9	W
19/08	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
15/08	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
08/08	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	4-2	4-4	9	5	D
29/07	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
25/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	0-3	10	1	L
18/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
12/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

KH Hlidarendi

WDLWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	5-0	6	4	W
29/08	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
23/08	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
19/08	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
15/08	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	3-1	4-1	4	2	W
08/08	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/07	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	4-0	7-0	–	–	W
24/07	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
17/07	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
12/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	3-2	5-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Fjallabyggd vs KH Hlidarendi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KH Hlidarendi win (53%). Probabilities: KF Fjallabyggd 25%, draw 22%, KH Hlidarendi 53%.

How many goals are expected in KF Fjallabyggd vs KH Hlidarendi?

The model expects 3.44 goals (KF Fjallabyggd 1.37 · KH Hlidarendi 2.07), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Fjallabyggd vs KH Hlidarendi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.