Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 24/07, 21:15

Prediction: Ymir Kopavogur vs KH Hlidarendi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Ymir Kopavogur1.57

KH Hlidarendi2.22

1X2

27% 21% 52%

Ymir Kopavogur Draw KH Hlidarendi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Ymir Kopavogur 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLWLL

KH Hlidarendi 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Ymir Kopavogur 2–2–2 KH Hlidarendi (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ymir Kopavogur 1475 · KH Hlidarendi 1555

	Ymir Kopavogur	Draw	KH Hlidarendi
Our model	26%	22%	52%
Market	28%	20%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KH Hlidarendi (rating 1475 vs 1555).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ymir Kopavogur	KH Hlidarendi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	1.57 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:00 +6’	3.75	4.75	1.57
15:02 +5’	3.25▼	4.50▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ymir Kopavogur 2–2–2 KH Hlidarendi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Iceland 3 Deild	KH Hlidarendi	2-2 HT 1-1	Ymir Kopavogur
24/06/25 Iceland Lower League Cup	Ymir Kopavogur	8-0 HT 4-0	KH Hlidarendi
05/07/24 Iceland 4 Deild	KH Hlidarendi	2-1 HT 0-0	Ymir Kopavogur
09/05/24 Iceland 4 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	5-3 HT 3-1	KH Hlidarendi
31/08/21 Iceland 4 Deild	KH Hlidarendi	2-1 HT 0-1	Ymir Kopavogur
27/08/21 Iceland 4 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	0-0 HT 0-0	KH Hlidarendi

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tindastoll	13	9	1	3	34	20	28
2	Vidir Gardur	13	8	3	2	29	15	27
3	Reynir Sandgerdi	13	8	2	3	38	25	26
4	KH Hlidarendi	13	7	4	2	37	19	25
5	KV Vesturbaer	13	8	0	5	36	35	24
6	KF Fjallabyggd	13	5	5	3	18	15	20
7	Augnablik Kopavogur	13	5	3	5	27	26	18
8	Hottur/Huginn	13	3	6	4	15	18	15
9	Ymir Kopavogur	13	3	3	7	21	28	12
10	KA Asvellir	13	3	1	9	22	40	10
11	Sindri	13	2	2	9	18	36	8
12	FC Arbaer	13	1	2	10	16	34	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ymir Kopavogur	KH Hlidarendi
Augnablik Kopavogur	1-3 L	3-1 W
Tindastoll	1-2 L	2-1 W
KV Vesturbaer	2-3 L	5-1 W
Reynir Sandgerdi	2-2 D	2-2 D
Hottur/Huginn	2-3 L	1-1 D
KF Fjallabyggd	0-0 D	0-1 L
Vidir Gardur	1-3 L	1-1 D
Sindri	4-0 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KH Hlidarendi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ymir Kopavogur

WLDWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
08/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland Lower League Cup	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-3	9	5	L
28/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	2-2	2	2	D
21/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
11/06	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
06/06	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
01/06	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
23/05	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	4-0	5	6	W

KH Hlidarendi

WDDWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
12/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	3-2	5-3	–	–	W
08/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland Lower League Cup	2-0	2-2	6	9	D
04/07	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	19	4	L
26/06	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
19/06	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
15/06	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	5-1	8	3	W
10/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
06/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	3-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ymir Kopavogur vs KH Hlidarendi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KH Hlidarendi win (52%). Probabilities: Ymir Kopavogur 27%, draw 21%, KH Hlidarendi 52%.

How many goals are expected in Ymir Kopavogur vs KH Hlidarendi?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Ymir Kopavogur 1.57 · KH Hlidarendi 2.22), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ymir Kopavogur vs KH Hlidarendi?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.