Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: KF Fjallabyggd vs Reynir Sandgerdi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

KF Fjallabyggd1.82

Reynir Sandgerdi1.93

1X2

37% 23% 41%

KF Fjallabyggd Draw Reynir Sandgerdi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KF Fjallabyggd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWDWDW

Reynir Sandgerdi 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDWDWW

Head-to-head

KF Fjallabyggd 2–1–3 Reynir Sandgerdi (6 last)

Reynir Sandgerdi2-0KF Fjallabyggd
KF Fjallabyggd0-3Reynir Sandgerdi
Reynir Sandgerdi1-0KF Fjallabyggd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Fjallabyggd 1521 · Reynir Sandgerdi 1575

	KF Fjallabyggd	Draw	Reynir Sandgerdi
Our model	36%	23%	41%
Market	37%	22%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reynir Sandgerdi (rating 1521 vs 1575).
H2H favours Reynir Sandgerdi: 3-1-2.
High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Fjallabyggd	Reynir Sandgerdi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	3.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.4	3.3 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:09 +5’	2.45	4.00	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Fjallabyggd 2–1–3 Reynir Sandgerdi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Iceland 3 Deild	Reynir Sandgerdi	2-0 HT 1-0	KF Fjallabyggd
06/09/25 Iceland 3 Deild	KF Fjallabyggd	0-3 HT 0-1	Reynir Sandgerdi
29/06/25 Iceland 3 Deild	Reynir Sandgerdi	1-0 HT 0-0	KF Fjallabyggd
25/08/24 Iceland 2 Deild	KF Fjallabyggd	2-1 HT 1-0	Reynir Sandgerdi
23/06/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Reynir Sandgerdi	1-1 HT 1-0	KF Fjallabyggd
10/09/22 Iceland 2 Deild	KF Fjallabyggd	8-3	Reynir Sandgerdi

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tindastoll	13	9	1	3	34	20	28
2	Vidir Gardur	13	8	3	2	29	15	27
3	Reynir Sandgerdi	13	8	2	3	38	25	26
4	KH Hlidarendi	13	7	4	2	37	19	25
5	KV Vesturbaer	13	8	0	5	36	35	24
6	KF Fjallabyggd	13	5	5	3	18	15	20
7	Augnablik Kopavogur	14	5	3	6	29	29	18
8	Hottur/Huginn	13	3	6	4	15	18	15
9	KA Asvellir	14	4	1	9	25	42	13
10	Ymir Kopavogur	13	3	3	7	21	28	12
11	Sindri	13	2	2	9	18	36	8
12	FC Arbaer	13	1	2	10	16	34	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Fjallabyggd	Reynir Sandgerdi
Sindri	2-0 W	4-1 W
Hottur/Huginn	0-0 D	4-0 W
KH Hlidarendi	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Arbaer	2-2 D	3-1 W
Augnablik Kopavogur	3-1 W	6-3 W
KA Asvellir	2-1 W	7-2 W
Tindastoll	3-1 W	1-2 L
Ymir Kopavogur	0-0 D	2-2 D
Vidir Gardur	1-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Reynir Sandgerdi (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KF Fjallabyggd

LLDWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
12/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
04/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	2-2	12	1	D
20/06	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
14/06	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/06	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
06/06	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
30/05	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	3-5	7	6	L
24/05	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-2	7	6	L

Reynir Sandgerdi

LWDWLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/07	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
08/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland Lower League Cup	0-2	2-2	18	9	D
03/07	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	4-0	7-2	–	–	W
28/06	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
19/06	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-3	0-5	6	2	L
14/06	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	4-1	–	–	W
10/06	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-2	11	5	D
05/06	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	6-3	5	2	W
31/05	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Fjallabyggd vs Reynir Sandgerdi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Reynir Sandgerdi win (41%). Probabilities: KF Fjallabyggd 37%, draw 23%, Reynir Sandgerdi 41%.

How many goals are expected in KF Fjallabyggd vs Reynir Sandgerdi?

The model expects 3.75 goals (KF Fjallabyggd 1.82 · Reynir Sandgerdi 1.93), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Fjallabyggd vs Reynir Sandgerdi?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.