Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 29/07, 21:15

Prediction: KV Vesturbaer vs Reynir Sandgerdi

Team pages: KV Vesturbaer · Reynir Sandgerdi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.51Total

KV Vesturbaer2.23

Reynir Sandgerdi2.28

1X2

39% 20% 41%

KV Vesturbaer Draw Reynir Sandgerdi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

KV Vesturbaer 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWD

Reynir Sandgerdi 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWDWWW

Head-to-head

KV Vesturbaer 2–2–2 Reynir Sandgerdi (6 last)

Reynir Sandgerdi3-2KV Vesturbaer
Reynir Sandgerdi5-5KV Vesturbaer
KV Vesturbaer5-2Reynir Sandgerdi
KV Vesturbaer4-4Reynir Sandgerdi
Reynir Sandgerdi4-1KV Vesturbaer
KV Vesturbaer4-2Reynir Sandgerdi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KV Vesturbaer 1529 · Reynir Sandgerdi 1580

	KV Vesturbaer	Draw	Reynir Sandgerdi
Our model	39%	21%	41%
Market	39%	20%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.51 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reynir Sandgerdi (rating 1529 vs 1580).
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KV Vesturbaer	Reynir Sandgerdi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.6	3.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	3 / 8.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.52.00

Under 4.51.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 5.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +1’	2.30	4.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KV Vesturbaer 2–2–2 Reynir Sandgerdi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Iceland 3 Deild	Reynir Sandgerdi	3-2 HT 1-2	KV Vesturbaer
11/07/25 Iceland 3 Deild	Reynir Sandgerdi	5-5 HT 3-2	KV Vesturbaer
09/05/25 Iceland 3 Deild	KV Vesturbaer	5-2 HT 3-2	Reynir Sandgerdi
13/04/23 Iceland League Cup B	KV Vesturbaer	4-4 HT 2-0	Reynir Sandgerdi
26/08/21 Iceland 2 Deild	Reynir Sandgerdi	4-1 HT 0-0	KV Vesturbaer
25/06/21 Iceland 2 Deild	KV Vesturbaer	4-2 HT 1-1	Reynir Sandgerdi

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tindastoll	14	10	1	3	38	20	31
2	Reynir Sandgerdi	14	9	2	3	41	25	29
3	Vidir Gardur	14	8	3	3	29	16	27
4	KH Hlidarendi	14	7	4	3	37	20	25
5	KV Vesturbaer	14	8	1	5	37	36	25
6	KF Fjallabyggd	14	5	5	4	18	18	20
7	Augnablik Kopavogur	14	5	3	6	29	29	18
8	Hottur/Huginn	14	3	7	4	16	19	16
9	Ymir Kopavogur	14	4	3	7	22	28	15
10	KA Asvellir	14	4	1	9	25	42	13
11	Sindri	14	3	2	9	19	36	11
12	FC Arbaer	14	1	2	11	16	38	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KV Vesturbaer	Reynir Sandgerdi
Hottur/Huginn	1-1 D	4-0 W
FC Arbaer	2-0 W	3-1 W
KA Asvellir	3-1 W	7-2 W
Ymir Kopavogur	3-2 W	2-2 D
Vidir Gardur	5-3 W	0-5 L
Sindri	3-2 W	4-1 W
KH Hlidarendi	1-5 L	2-2 D
Augnablik Kopavogur	3-5 L	6-3 W
KF Fjallabyggd	5-3 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Reynir Sandgerdi (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KV Vesturbaer

WLLLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/07	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/07	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
02/07	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	3-2	2	5	W
26/06	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	3-1	5-3	–	–	W
20/06	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	3-2	8	2	W
15/06	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-5	8	3	L
10/06	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	3-5	9	10	L
06/06	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-4	8	3	L
30/05	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	5-3	3	6	W

Reynir Sandgerdi

WDWLDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
18/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/07	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
08/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland Lower League Cup	0-2	2-2	18	9	D
03/07	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	4-0	7-2	–	–	W
28/06	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
19/06	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-3	0-5	6	2	L
14/06	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	4-1	–	–	W
10/06	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-2	11	5	D
05/06	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	6-3	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KV Vesturbaer vs Reynir Sandgerdi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Reynir Sandgerdi win (41%). Probabilities: KV Vesturbaer 39%, draw 20%, Reynir Sandgerdi 41%.

How many goals are expected in KV Vesturbaer vs Reynir Sandgerdi?

The model expects 4.51 goals (KV Vesturbaer 2.23 · Reynir Sandgerdi 2.28), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KV Vesturbaer vs Reynir Sandgerdi?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.