Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: UMF Selfoss vs KFG Gardabaer

Team pages: UMF Selfoss · KFG Gardabaer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.5Total

UMF Selfoss3.01

KFG Gardabaer1.48

1X2

68% 16% 16%

UMF Selfoss Draw KFG Gardabaer

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Selfoss 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDWWW

KFG Gardabaer 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

UMF Selfoss 5–1–0 KFG Gardabaer (6 last)

KFG Gardabaer2-3UMF Selfoss
KFG Gardabaer0-2UMF Selfoss
KFG Gardabaer1-3UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss3-1KFG Gardabaer
UMF Selfoss2-2KFG Gardabaer
KFG Gardabaer1-3UMF Selfoss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Selfoss 1617 · KFG Gardabaer 1454

	UMF Selfoss	Draw	KFG Gardabaer
Our model	68%	16%	16%
Market	68%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UMF Selfoss (rating 1617 vs 1454).
H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMF Selfoss	KFG Gardabaer
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.3	2.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	6.00 → 5.50▼	Pinn 6.38 ★
2	7.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.06

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:45 +2’	1.25	6.00	7.00
18:05 +38’	1.33▲	5.50▼	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +151’	1.26	6.38	6.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Selfoss 5–1–0 KFG Gardabaer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	2-3 HT 1-2	UMF Selfoss
01/03/26 Iceland League Cup B	KFG Gardabaer	0-2 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss
08/09/24 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	1-3 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss
17/07/24 Iceland Lower League Cup	UMF Selfoss	3-1 HT 2-0	KFG Gardabaer
08/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	2-2 HT 0-1	KFG Gardabaer
21/08/19 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	1-3 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	21	15	2	4	55	28	47
2	UMF Selfoss	21	12	6	3	53	35	42
3	Kari	21	10	9	2	52	29	39
4	Fjardabyggd	21	9	2	10	51	41	29
5	Dalvik/Reynir	21	8	4	9	33	36	28
6	Vikingur Olafsvik	21	8	4	9	29	41	28
7	Kormakur/Hvot	21	7	6	8	41	36	27
8	Fjolnir	21	7	6	8	47	45	27
9	Magni Grenivik	21	7	4	10	34	52	25
10	KFG Gardabaer	21	7	1	13	37	56	22
11	Throttur Vogar	21	6	2	13	31	41	20
12	Hviti Riddarinn	21	3	8	10	27	50	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Selfoss	KFG Gardabaer
Haukar	2-1 W	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	6-0 W	1-1 D
Throttur Vogar	3-1 W	1-5 L
Kari	2-2 D	1-5 L
Fjolnir	6-2 W	1-4 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-2 L	4-1 W
Dalvik/Reynir	2-1 W	0-2 L
Kormakur/Hvot	5-2 W	4-0 W
Fjardabyggd	1-0 W	3-4 L
Hviti Riddarinn	2-2 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: UMF Selfoss (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMF Selfoss

DWWWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
29/08	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	3-0	6-0	10	4	W
23/08	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
19/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
15/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	3-2	6-2	7	5	W
10/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
29/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
25/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
18/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D

KFG Gardabaer

LLDLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
22/08	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
19/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
15/08	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	3-4	8	4	L
08/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
29/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-5	9	3	L
12/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-5	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Selfoss vs KFG Gardabaer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMF Selfoss win (68%). Probabilities: UMF Selfoss 68%, draw 16%, KFG Gardabaer 16%.

How many goals are expected in UMF Selfoss vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model expects 4.5 goals (UMF Selfoss 3.01 · KFG Gardabaer 1.48), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UMF Selfoss vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.