Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Throttur Vogar vs Magni Grenivik

Team pages: Throttur Vogar · Magni Grenivik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Throttur Vogar2.38

Magni Grenivik1.37

1X2

59% 20% 20%

Throttur Vogar Draw Magni Grenivik

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Throttur Vogar 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLLD

Magni Grenivik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Throttur Vogar 1–1–1 Magni Grenivik (3 last)

Magni Grenivik4-3Throttur Vogar
Throttur Vogar2-2Magni Grenivik
Magni Grenivik0-1Throttur Vogar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Throttur Vogar 1460 · Magni Grenivik 1501

	Throttur Vogar	Draw	Magni Grenivik
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	60%	20%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Magni Grenivik (rating 1460 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Throttur Vogar	Magni Grenivik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.2	2.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.64
2	3.60 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.75 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +4’	1.67	4.20	3.60
13:24 +22’	1.50▼	4.50▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +137’	1.47	4.64	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Throttur Vogar 1–1–1 Magni Grenivik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Magni Grenivik	4-3 HT 2-2	Throttur Vogar
11/09/21 Iceland 2 Deild	Throttur Vogar	2-2	Magni Grenivik
04/07/21 Iceland 2 Deild	Magni Grenivik	0-1	Throttur Vogar

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	21	15	2	4	55	28	47
2	UMF Selfoss	21	12	6	3	53	35	42
3	Kari	21	10	9	2	52	29	39
4	Fjardabyggd	21	9	2	10	51	41	29
5	Dalvik/Reynir	21	8	4	9	33	36	28
6	Vikingur Olafsvik	21	8	4	9	29	41	28
7	Kormakur/Hvot	21	7	6	8	41	36	27
8	Fjolnir	21	7	6	8	47	45	27
9	Magni Grenivik	21	7	4	10	34	52	25
10	KFG Gardabaer	21	7	1	13	37	56	22
11	Throttur Vogar	21	6	2	13	31	41	20
12	Hviti Riddarinn	21	3	8	10	27	50	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Throttur Vogar	Magni Grenivik
Fjolnir	1-1 D	5-2 W
Kari	0-2 L	0-2 L
UMF Selfoss	1-3 L	0-6 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	1-2 L	3-1 W
Dalvik/Reynir	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kormakur/Hvot	0-2 L	3-0 W
Hviti Riddarinn	3-1 W	0-1 L
Fjardabyggd	2-4 L	3-0 W
Haukar	1-2 L	2-5 L
KFG Gardabaer	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Throttur Vogar (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Throttur Vogar

WLLWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
28/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
23/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	1-3	9	4	L
19/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	1-2	0	4	L
15/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
09/08	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
29/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
25/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-4	4	6	L
17/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
12/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	5-1	7	4	W

Magni Grenivik

LWDWLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
29/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	0-3	0-6	4	4	L
23/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	0	7	W
19/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
15/08	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
08/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-1	5	10	L
29/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-0	4	5	W
25/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
18/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
12/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	2-5	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Throttur Vogar vs Magni Grenivik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Throttur Vogar win (59%). Probabilities: Throttur Vogar 59%, draw 20%, Magni Grenivik 20%.

How many goals are expected in Throttur Vogar vs Magni Grenivik?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Throttur Vogar 2.38 · Magni Grenivik 1.37), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Throttur Vogar vs Magni Grenivik?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.