Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjolnir

Team pages: Kormakur/Hvot · Fjolnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

Kormakur/Hvot2.17

Fjolnir2.22

1X2

39% 21% 41%

Kormakur/Hvot Draw Fjolnir

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Kormakur/Hvot 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLLLLW

Fjolnir 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Kormakur/Hvot 0–1–1 Fjolnir (2 last)

Fjolnir1-1Kormakur/Hvot
Fjolnir10-0Kormakur/Hvot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kormakur/Hvot 1455 · Fjolnir 1497

	Kormakur/Hvot	Draw	Fjolnir
Our model	39%	21%	40%
Market	39%	21%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fjolnir (rating 1455 vs 1497).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kormakur/Hvot	Fjolnir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	2.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.33

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	4.10 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	2.35 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.22

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:40 +7’	2.25	4.10	2.35
01:47 +10’	2.20▼	4.33▲	2.30▼
10:04 +20’	2.30▲	4.33	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:57 +45’	2.44	3.97	2.25
10:20 +4’	2.41▼	4.20▲	2.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kormakur/Hvot 0–1–1 Fjolnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjolnir	1-1 HT 0-0	Kormakur/Hvot
14/03/26 Iceland League Cup B	Fjolnir	10-0 HT 4-0	Kormakur/Hvot

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	21	15	2	4	55	28	47
2	UMF Selfoss	21	12	6	3	53	35	42
3	Kari	21	10	9	2	52	29	39
4	Fjardabyggd	21	9	2	10	51	41	29
5	Dalvik/Reynir	21	8	4	9	33	36	28
6	Vikingur Olafsvik	21	8	4	9	29	41	28
7	Kormakur/Hvot	21	7	6	8	41	36	27
8	Fjolnir	21	7	6	8	47	45	27
9	Magni Grenivik	21	7	4	10	34	52	25
10	KFG Gardabaer	21	7	1	13	37	56	22
11	Throttur Vogar	21	6	2	13	31	41	20
12	Hviti Riddarinn	21	3	8	10	27	50	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kormakur/Hvot	Fjolnir
Hviti Riddarinn	4-3 W	3-3 D
Fjardabyggd	2-3 L	1-2 L
KFG Gardabaer	0-4 L	4-1 W
Haukar	1-2 L	2-1 W
Magni Grenivik	0-3 L	2-5 L
Throttur Vogar	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kari	1-1 D	0-1 L
UMF Selfoss	2-5 L	2-6 L
Dalvik/Reynir	3-1 W	4-1 W
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Kormakur/Hvot (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kormakur/Hvot

DWLDWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	3-1	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-3	12	2	L
22/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
19/08	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
15/08	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
09/08	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
18/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Fjolnir

WLWDWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-3	7	3	D
23/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
19/08	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
15/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	2-3	2-6	5	5	L
08/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
29/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
18/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
12/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjolnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fjolnir win (41%). Probabilities: Kormakur/Hvot 39%, draw 21%, Fjolnir 41%.

How many goals are expected in Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjolnir?

The model expects 4.39 goals (Kormakur/Hvot 2.17 · Fjolnir 2.22), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjolnir?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.