Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Haukar vs UMF Selfoss

Team pages: Haukar · UMF Selfoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Haukar2.18

UMF Selfoss1.93

1X2

44% 22% 34%

Haukar Draw UMF Selfoss

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Haukar 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

UMF Selfoss 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Haukar 2–1–3 UMF Selfoss (6 last)

UMF Selfoss2-2Haukar
UMF Selfoss4-0Haukar
Haukar1-2UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss3-2Haukar
UMF Selfoss1-2Haukar
Haukar3-2UMF Selfoss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haukar 1607 · UMF Selfoss 1589

	Haukar	Draw	UMF Selfoss
Our model	44%	22%	35%
Market	44%	22%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 3-1-2.
High corners: 15.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haukar	UMF Selfoss
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.3	3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.1 / 9.2	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.35 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.71 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +19’	2.25	4.10	2.35
19:52 +5’	2.05▼	4.10	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +4’	2.03	4.10	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Haukar 2–1–3 UMF Selfoss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	2-2 HT 0-1	Haukar
18/04/25 Iceland Cup	UMF Selfoss	4-0 HT 2-0	Haukar
26/08/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Haukar	1-2 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss
06/08/24 Iceland Lower League Cup	UMF Selfoss	3-2 HT 0-1	Haukar
24/06/24 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	1-2 HT 1-2	Haukar
07/03/24 Iceland League Cup B	Haukar	3-2 HT 1-2	UMF Selfoss

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	20	15	2	3	54	26	47
2	UMF Selfoss	20	11	6	3	51	34	39
3	Kari	20	9	9	2	50	29	36
4	Fjardabyggd	20	9	2	9	49	38	29
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	20	8	4	8	28	37	28
6	Fjolnir	20	7	5	8	46	44	26
7	Dalvik/Reynir	20	7	4	9	30	34	25
8	Magni Grenivik	20	7	4	9	34	50	25
9	Kormakur/Hvot	20	6	6	8	37	33	24
10	Throttur Vogar	20	6	1	13	30	40	19
11	KFG Gardabaer	20	6	1	13	33	55	19
12	Hviti Riddarinn	20	3	8	9	24	46	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haukar	UMF Selfoss
Vikingur Olafsvik	4-1 W	0-2 L
Dalvik/Reynir	5-2 W	2-1 W
Kormakur/Hvot	2-1 W	5-2 W
Hviti Riddarinn	3-1 W	2-2 D
Fjardabyggd	2-1 W	1-0 W
KFG Gardabaer	2-1 W	3-2 W
Fjolnir	1-2 L	6-2 W
Throttur Vogar	2-1 W	3-1 W
Magni Grenivik	5-2 W	6-0 W
Kari	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	9 W 0 D 1 L	7 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haukar

WWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	9	2	W
23/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	5-2	10	4	W
19/08	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	7	5	W
14/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	3-1	15	6	W
08/08	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
29/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
24/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
17/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	2-1	13	2	W
12/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	5-2	4	7	W
01/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-1	10	5	W

UMF Selfoss

WDWWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	3-0	6-0	10	4	W
23/08	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
19/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
15/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	3-2	6-2	7	5	W
10/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
29/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
25/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
18/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
03/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-2	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haukar vs UMF Selfoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Haukar win (44%). Probabilities: Haukar 44%, draw 22%, UMF Selfoss 34%.

How many goals are expected in Haukar vs UMF Selfoss?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Haukar 2.18 · UMF Selfoss 1.93), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Haukar vs UMF Selfoss?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.