Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: KFG Gardabaer vs Kormakur/Hvot

Team pages: KFG Gardabaer · Kormakur/Hvot

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

KFG Gardabaer1.77

Kormakur/Hvot2.04

1X2

33% 23% 44%

KFG Gardabaer Draw Kormakur/Hvot

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KFG Gardabaer 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLLW

Kormakur/Hvot 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLDWLL

Head-to-head

KFG Gardabaer 3–1–2 Kormakur/Hvot (6 last)

Kormakur/Hvot2-3KFG Gardabaer
Kormakur/Hvot3-1KFG Gardabaer
KFG Gardabaer2-1Kormakur/Hvot
KFG Gardabaer1-1Kormakur/Hvot
Kormakur/Hvot1-0KFG Gardabaer
Kormakur/Hvot0-4KFG Gardabaer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KFG Gardabaer 1426 · Kormakur/Hvot 1490

	KFG Gardabaer	Draw	Kormakur/Hvot
Our model	33%	23%	44%
Market	33%	23%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kormakur/Hvot (rating 1426 vs 1490).
H2H favours KFG Gardabaer: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KFG Gardabaer	Kormakur/Hvot
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3.1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.90

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.68
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.47 ★
2	1.85 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:35 +5’	3.00	4.00	1.85
08:54 +8’	2.70▼	3.90▼	2.05▲
14:46 +13’	2.50▼	3.90	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:39 +1’	2.85	4.62	1.86
08:59 +2’	2.57▼	4.43▼	2.04▲
10:42 +8’	2.70▲	4.41▼	1.97▼
14:37 +22’	2.68▼	4.47▲	2.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KFG Gardabaer 3–1–2 Kormakur/Hvot

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	2-3 HT 2-2	KFG Gardabaer
06/09/25 Iceland 2 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	3-1 HT 1-0	KFG Gardabaer
29/06/25 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	2-1 HT 1-0	Kormakur/Hvot
17/08/24 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	1-1 HT 0-0	Kormakur/Hvot
08/06/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	1-0 HT 1-0	KFG Gardabaer
03/09/22 Iceland 3 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	0-4	KFG Gardabaer

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	18	13	2	3	45	23	41
2	UMF Selfoss	18	9	6	3	42	33	33
3	Kari	18	7	9	2	47	29	30
4	Vikingur Olafsvik	18	8	4	6	26	30	28
5	Fjolnir	18	7	4	7	43	40	25
6	Kormakur/Hvot	19	6	6	7	35	30	24
7	Fjardabyggd	18	7	2	9	40	36	23
8	Dalvik/Reynir	18	6	4	8	26	29	22
9	Magni Grenivik	18	6	4	8	31	43	22
10	Throttur Vogar	18	6	1	11	29	35	19
11	KFG Gardabaer	19	6	1	12	33	53	19
12	Hviti Riddarinn	18	3	7	8	21	37	16

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KFG Gardabaer	Kormakur/Hvot
Hviti Riddarinn	5-0 W	4-0 W
Fjardabyggd	3-4 L	2-2 D
Fjolnir	1-4 L	1-1 D
Haukar	1-2 L	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	1-1 D	0-3 L
Kari	1-5 L	1-1 D
Throttur Vogar	1-5 L	2-0 W
UMF Selfoss	2-3 L	2-5 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-1 L	0-0 D
Dalvik/Reynir	0-6 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 8 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kormakur/Hvot (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KFG Gardabaer

LLLLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
15/08	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	3-4	8	4	L
08/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
29/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-5	9	3	L
12/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
03/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
27/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-5	0-6	9	6	L

Kormakur/Hvot

DWDDWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
15/08	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
09/08	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
18/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
27/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
20/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KFG Gardabaer vs Kormakur/Hvot?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kormakur/Hvot win (44%). Probabilities: KFG Gardabaer 33%, draw 23%, Kormakur/Hvot 44%.

How many goals are expected in KFG Gardabaer vs Kormakur/Hvot?

The model expects 3.81 goals (KFG Gardabaer 1.77 · Kormakur/Hvot 2.04), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KFG Gardabaer vs Kormakur/Hvot?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.