Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: UMF Selfoss vs Magni Grenivik

Team pages: UMF Selfoss · Magni Grenivik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

UMF Selfoss2.66

Magni Grenivik1.41

1X2

63% 19% 18%

UMF Selfoss Draw Magni Grenivik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Selfoss 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLWDW

Magni Grenivik 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLWDW

Head-to-head

UMF Selfoss 1–1–2 Magni Grenivik (4 last)

Magni Grenivik4-1UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss1-1Magni Grenivik
Magni Grenivik3-1UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss2-1Magni Grenivik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Selfoss 1577 · Magni Grenivik 1540

	UMF Selfoss	Draw	Magni Grenivik
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	63%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Magni Grenivik: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMF Selfoss	Magni Grenivik
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.90
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.20 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:53 +7’	1.42	4.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +1’	1.41	4.90	5.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Selfoss 1–1–2 Magni Grenivik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Magni Grenivik	4-1 HT 0-0	UMF Selfoss
24/05/22 Iceland Cup	UMF Selfoss	1-1 HT 1-0	Magni Grenivik
08/08/18 Iceland 1 Deild	Magni Grenivik	3-1 HT 1-0	UMF Selfoss
26/05/18 Iceland 1 Deild	UMF Selfoss	2-1 HT 0-0	Magni Grenivik

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	19	14	2	3	50	25	44
2	UMF Selfoss	19	10	6	3	45	34	36
3	Kari	19	8	9	2	48	29	33
4	Vikingur Olafsvik	19	8	4	7	27	33	28
5	Fjardabyggd	19	8	2	9	46	36	26
6	Fjolnir	20	7	5	8	46	44	26
7	Magni Grenivik	19	7	4	8	34	44	25
8	Kormakur/Hvot	19	6	6	7	35	30	24
9	Dalvik/Reynir	19	6	4	9	28	34	22
10	Throttur Vogar	19	6	1	12	30	38	19
11	KFG Gardabaer	19	6	1	12	33	53	19
12	Hviti Riddarinn	20	3	8	9	24	46	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Selfoss	Magni Grenivik
Throttur Vogar	3-1 W	4-3 W
Kari	2-2 D	1-1 D
Fjolnir	6-2 W	5-2 W
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-2 L	3-1 W
Dalvik/Reynir	2-1 W	1-1 D
Kormakur/Hvot	5-2 W	3-0 W
Fjardabyggd	1-0 W	3-0 W
Hviti Riddarinn	2-2 D	0-1 L
KFG Gardabaer	3-2 W	1-1 D
Haukar	2-2 D	2-5 L
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UMF Selfoss (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMF Selfoss

DWDWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
19/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
15/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	3-2	6-2	7	5	W
10/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
29/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
25/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
18/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
03/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
26/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	5	5	D

Magni Grenivik

DWLWDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	0	7	W
19/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
15/08	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
08/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-1	5	10	L
29/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-0	4	5	W
25/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
18/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
12/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	2-5	4	7	L
04/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	4-3	3	7	W
27/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Selfoss vs Magni Grenivik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMF Selfoss win (63%). Probabilities: UMF Selfoss 63%, draw 19%, Magni Grenivik 18%.

How many goals are expected in UMF Selfoss vs Magni Grenivik?

The model expects 4.07 goals (UMF Selfoss 2.66 · Magni Grenivik 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UMF Selfoss vs Magni Grenivik?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.