Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjardabyggd

Team pages: Kormakur/Hvot · Fjardabyggd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Kormakur/Hvot1.68

Fjardabyggd1.76

1X2

37% 23% 40%

Kormakur/Hvot Draw Fjardabyggd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kormakur/Hvot 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDWLLL

Fjardabyggd 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Kormakur/Hvot 1–1–3 Fjardabyggd (5 last)

Fjardabyggd2-2Kormakur/Hvot
Kormakur/Hvot5-1Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd8-1Kormakur/Hvot
Kormakur/Hvot1-3Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd3-0Kormakur/Hvot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kormakur/Hvot 1475 · Fjardabyggd 1518

	Kormakur/Hvot	Draw	Fjardabyggd
Our model	36%	24%	39%
Market	37%	22%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fjardabyggd (rating 1475 vs 1518).
H2H favours Fjardabyggd: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kormakur/Hvot	Fjardabyggd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.3	2.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X4.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.50 ★
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	2.15 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.24

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +8’	2.50	4.00	2.15
18:53 +7’	2.40▼	4.10▲	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +1’	2.50	3.85	2.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kormakur/Hvot 1–1–3 Fjardabyggd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	2-2 HT 1-0	Kormakur/Hvot
19/07/25 Iceland 2 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	5-1 HT 2-1	Fjardabyggd
03/05/25 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	8-1 HT 3-1	Kormakur/Hvot
08/09/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	1-3 HT 0-1	Fjardabyggd
07/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	3-0 HT 3-0	Kormakur/Hvot

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	19	14	2	3	50	25	44
2	UMF Selfoss	19	10	6	3	45	34	36
3	Kari	19	8	9	2	48	29	33
4	Vikingur Olafsvik	19	8	4	7	27	33	28
5	Fjardabyggd	19	8	2	9	46	36	26
6	Fjolnir	20	7	5	8	46	44	26
7	Magni Grenivik	19	7	4	8	34	44	25
8	Kormakur/Hvot	19	6	6	7	35	30	24
9	Dalvik/Reynir	19	6	4	9	28	34	22
10	Throttur Vogar	19	6	1	12	30	38	19
11	KFG Gardabaer	19	6	1	12	33	53	19
12	Hviti Riddarinn	20	3	8	9	24	46	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kormakur/Hvot	Fjardabyggd
KFG Gardabaer	0-4 L	4-3 W
Haukar	1-2 L	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	0-3 L	0-3 L
Throttur Vogar	2-0 W	4-2 W
Kari	1-1 D	2-2 D
UMF Selfoss	2-5 L	0-1 L
Dalvik/Reynir	3-1 W	0-1 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-0 D	3-0 W
Fjolnir	1-1 D	2-1 W
Hviti Riddarinn	4-0 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Fjardabyggd (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kormakur/Hvot

WDDWLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
19/08	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
15/08	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
09/08	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
18/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
27/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-0	6	4	W

Fjardabyggd

LWDLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	3-0	6-0	6	1	W
19/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	10	6	W
15/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-3	2	4	W
08/08	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-2	7	8	L
29/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
25/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	4-2	5	6	W
18/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
12/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	3	0	D
04/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjardabyggd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fjardabyggd win (40%). Probabilities: Kormakur/Hvot 37%, draw 23%, Fjardabyggd 40%.

How many goals are expected in Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjardabyggd?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Kormakur/Hvot 1.68 · Fjardabyggd 1.76), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kormakur/Hvot vs Fjardabyggd?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.