Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 23/08, 16:00
Prediction: Throttur Vogar vs UMF Selfoss
Team pages: Throttur Vogar · UMF Selfoss
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.16Total
Throttur Vogar1.97
UMF Selfoss2.19
1X2
Throttur Vogar
Draw
UMF Selfoss
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Throttur Vogar
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
UMF Selfoss
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Throttur Vogar
1–1–4
UMF Selfoss
(6 last)
- UMF Selfoss3-1Throttur Vogar
- Throttur Vogar4-1UMF Selfoss
- UMF Selfoss6-1Throttur Vogar
- Throttur Vogar1-1UMF Selfoss
- UMF Selfoss4-0Throttur Vogar
- UMF Selfoss4-0Throttur Vogar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Throttur Vogar 1468 · UMF Selfoss 1572
| Throttur Vogar | Draw | UMF Selfoss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 22% | 43% |
| Market | 35% | 23% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UMF Selfoss (rating 1468 vs 1572).
- H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Throttur Vogar | UMF Selfoss | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.2 | 2.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.3 | 2.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Throttur Vogar 1–1–4 UMF Selfoss
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild | UMF Selfoss | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Throttur Vogar |
| 09/08/24 Iceland 2 Deild | Throttur Vogar | 4-1 HT 0-0 | UMF Selfoss |
| 31/05/24 Iceland 2 Deild | UMF Selfoss | 6-1 HT 0-1 | Throttur Vogar |
| 04/08/22 Iceland 1 Deild | Throttur Vogar | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UMF Selfoss |
| 27/05/22 Iceland 1 Deild | UMF Selfoss | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Throttur Vogar |
| 21/01/22 Iceland Pre-Season Cup | UMF Selfoss | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Throttur Vogar |
Standings · Iceland 2 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 23 | 41 |
| 2 | UMF Selfoss | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 33 | 33 |
| 3 | Kari | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 47 | 29 | 30 |
| 4 | Vikingur Olafsvik | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
| 5 | Fjolnir | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 43 | 40 | 25 |
| 6 | Kormakur/Hvot | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 24 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 36 | 23 |
| 8 | Dalvik/Reynir | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 29 | 22 |
| 9 | Magni Grenivik | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 43 | 22 |
| 10 | Throttur Vogar | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 35 | 19 |
| 11 | KFG Gardabaer | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 53 | 19 |
| 12 | Hviti Riddarinn | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 16 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Throttur Vogar | UMF Selfoss |
|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Olafsvik | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Dalvik/Reynir | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Kormakur/Hvot | 0-2 L | 5-2 W |
| Hviti Riddarinn | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Fjardabyggd | 2-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Haukar | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| KFG Gardabaer | 5-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Magni Grenivik | 3-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Fjolnir | 3-2 W | 6-2 W |
| Kari | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 6 L | 5 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Throttur Vogar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 29/07 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/07 | Haukar Iceland 2 Deild |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
UMF Selfoss
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
3-2 | 6-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 29/07 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
1-2 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 03/07 | KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Haukar Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Throttur Vogar vs UMF Selfoss?
According to our model, the most likely result is an UMF Selfoss win (43%). Probabilities: Throttur Vogar 35%, draw 22%, UMF Selfoss 43%.
How many goals are expected in Throttur Vogar vs UMF Selfoss?
The model expects 4.16 goals (Throttur Vogar 1.97 · UMF Selfoss 2.19), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Throttur Vogar vs UMF Selfoss?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.