Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Fjolnir vs KFG Gardabaer

Team pages: Fjolnir · KFG Gardabaer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

Fjolnir2.97

KFG Gardabaer1.42

1X2

69% 16% 15%

Fjolnir Draw KFG Gardabaer

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fjolnir 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDWLWD

KFG Gardabaer 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Fjolnir 0–1 KFG Gardabaer (1 last)

KFG Gardabaer4-3Fjolnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fjolnir 1503 · KFG Gardabaer 1435

	Fjolnir	Draw	KFG Gardabaer
Our model	68%	16%	15%
Market	69%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fjolnir (rating 1503 vs 1435).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fjolnir	KFG Gardabaer
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.1	1.1 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.3	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.27▲	Bet365 1.27
X	6.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.81 ★
2	7.00 → 6.50▼	Pinn 7.01

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:28 +25’	1.25	6.00	7.00
14:42 +5’	1.30▲	5.75▼	5.75▼
11:35 +31’	1.27▼	5.75	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:52	1.22	6.81	7.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fjolnir 0–0–1 KFG Gardabaer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	4-3 HT 1-2	Fjolnir

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	15	10	2	3	38	20	32
2	UMF Selfoss	15	8	5	2	34	27	29
3	Kari	15	6	7	2	40	25	25
4	Fjolnir	15	6	4	5	36	31	22
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	15	6	4	5	21	25	22
6	Kormakur/Hvot	15	5	6	4	32	21	21
7	Dalvik/Reynir	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
8	Magni Grenivik	15	5	3	7	27	41	18
9	Fjardabyggd	15	5	2	8	33	30	17
10	Throttur Vogar	15	5	1	9	26	31	16
11	Hviti Riddarinn	15	2	7	6	19	29	13
12	KFG Gardabaer	15	4	1	10	20	45	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fjolnir	KFG Gardabaer
Vikingur Olafsvik	2-2 D	0-1 L
Haukar	2-1 W	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	2-5 L	1-1 D
Dalvik/Reynir	4-1 W	0-6 L
Kormakur/Hvot	1-1 D	3-2 W
Throttur Vogar	2-3 L	1-5 L
Kari	2-2 D	1-5 L
Fjardabyggd	3-2 W	1-5 L
UMF Selfoss	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Fjolnir (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fjolnir

LWDLDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
18/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
12/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
08/07	Alftanes Iceland Lower League Cup	0-0	1-1	13	5	D
04/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
26/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	8	6	L
15/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
10/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	3-2	6	1	W
06/06	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-3	11	4	L

KFG Gardabaer

LWWLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-5	9	3	L
12/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
03/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
27/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-5	0-6	9	6	L
14/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
10/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	1-3	1-5	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fjolnir vs KFG Gardabaer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fjolnir win (69%). Probabilities: Fjolnir 69%, draw 16%, KFG Gardabaer 15%.

How many goals are expected in Fjolnir vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model expects 4.39 goals (Fjolnir 2.97 · KFG Gardabaer 1.42), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Fjolnir vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.