Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: KFG Gardabaer vs Fjardabyggd

Team pages: KFG Gardabaer · Fjardabyggd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

KFG Gardabaer1.54

Fjardabyggd2.51

1X2

22% 19% 58%

KFG Gardabaer Draw Fjardabyggd

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

KFG Gardabaer 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLDLL

Fjardabyggd 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDLWLL

Head-to-head

KFG Gardabaer 2–1–3 Fjardabyggd (6 last)

Fjardabyggd5-1KFG Gardabaer
KFG Gardabaer2-2Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd5-2KFG Gardabaer
KFG Gardabaer4-1Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd1-2KFG Gardabaer
Fjardabyggd2-1KFG Gardabaer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KFG Gardabaer 1417 · Fjardabyggd 1466

	KFG Gardabaer	Draw	Fjardabyggd
Our model	22%	20%	58%
Market	22%	19%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fjardabyggd (rating 1417 vs 1466).
H2H favours Fjardabyggd: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KFG Gardabaer	Fjardabyggd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.9	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.7	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.75

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +7’	4.00	4.75	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KFG Gardabaer 2–1–3 Fjardabyggd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	5-1 HT 3-1	KFG Gardabaer
13/09/25 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	2-2 HT 0-0	Fjardabyggd
05/07/25 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	5-2 HT 2-2	KFG Gardabaer
24/08/24 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	4-1 HT 2-0	Fjardabyggd
23/06/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	1-2 HT 0-0	KFG Gardabaer
26/08/23 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	2-1	KFG Gardabaer

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	16	11	2	3	40	21	35
2	UMF Selfoss	16	8	5	3	34	29	29
3	Kari	16	6	8	2	41	26	26
4	Fjolnir	16	7	4	5	40	32	25
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	16	7	4	5	23	25	25
6	Kormakur/Hvot	16	6	6	4	34	21	24
7	Dalvik/Reynir	16	6	3	7	25	26	21
8	Magni Grenivik	16	5	3	8	27	42	18
9	Fjardabyggd	16	5	2	9	34	32	17
10	Throttur Vogar	16	5	1	10	26	33	16
11	Hviti Riddarinn	16	3	7	6	20	29	16
12	KFG Gardabaer	16	4	1	11	21	49	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KFG Gardabaer	Fjardabyggd
Fjolnir	1-4 L	2-3 L
Haukar	1-2 L	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	1-1 D	0-3 L
Kari	1-5 L	2-2 D
Throttur Vogar	1-5 L	4-2 W
UMF Selfoss	2-3 L	0-1 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-1 L	3-0 W
Dalvik/Reynir	0-6 L	0-1 L
Kormakur/Hvot	3-2 W	2-2 D
Hviti Riddarinn	1-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Fjardabyggd (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KFG Gardabaer

WWLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
29/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-5	9	3	L
12/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
03/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
27/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-5	0-6	9	6	L
14/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
10/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Fjardabyggd

LLDLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-2	7	8	L
29/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
25/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	4-2	5	6	W
18/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
12/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	3	0	D
04/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
20/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-3	3-4	9	10	L
10/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-3	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KFG Gardabaer vs Fjardabyggd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fjardabyggd win (58%). Probabilities: KFG Gardabaer 22%, draw 19%, Fjardabyggd 58%.

How many goals are expected in KFG Gardabaer vs Fjardabyggd?

The model expects 4.05 goals (KFG Gardabaer 1.54 · Fjardabyggd 2.51), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in KFG Gardabaer vs Fjardabyggd?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.