Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: UMF Selfoss vs Fjolnir

Team pages: UMF Selfoss · Fjolnir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

UMF Selfoss2.23

Fjolnir1.98

1X2

44% 22% 34%

UMF Selfoss Draw Fjolnir

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Selfoss 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWWWL

Fjolnir 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWLWDW

Head-to-head

UMF Selfoss 3–3 Fjolnir (6 last)

Fjolnir2-3UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss1-2Fjolnir
Fjolnir0-2UMF Selfoss
Fjolnir4-2UMF Selfoss
Fjolnir2-4UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss1-2Fjolnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Selfoss 1564 · Fjolnir 1531

	UMF Selfoss	Draw	Fjolnir
Our model	44%	21%	35%
Market	44%	22%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMF Selfoss	Fjolnir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.7	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	4.00 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	2.63 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:47 +7’	2.05	4.00	2.63
01:14 +20’	2.05	4.20▲	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:54	2.02	4.04	2.76
01:32 +2’	2.02	4.06▲	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Selfoss 3–0–3 Fjolnir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjolnir	2-3 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss
17/08/25 Iceland 1 Deild	UMF Selfoss	1-2 HT 1-2	Fjolnir
09/06/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Fjolnir	0-2 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss
23/04/24 Iceland Cup	Fjolnir	4-2 HT 1-1	UMF Selfoss
29/07/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Fjolnir	2-4 HT 1-1	UMF Selfoss
21/05/23 Iceland 1 Deild	UMF Selfoss	1-2 HT 1-2	Fjolnir

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	17	12	2	3	43	22	38
2	UMF Selfoss	16	8	5	3	34	29	29
3	Kari	16	6	8	2	41	26	26
4	Fjolnir	16	7	4	5	40	32	25
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	16	7	4	5	23	25	25
6	Kormakur/Hvot	16	6	6	4	34	21	24
7	Dalvik/Reynir	16	6	3	7	25	26	21
8	Magni Grenivik	16	5	3	8	27	42	18
9	Fjardabyggd	16	5	2	9	34	32	17
10	Throttur Vogar	16	5	1	10	26	33	16
11	Hviti Riddarinn	17	3	7	7	21	32	16
12	KFG Gardabaer	16	4	1	11	21	49	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Selfoss	Fjolnir
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-2 L	2-2 D
Dalvik/Reynir	2-1 W	4-1 W
Kormakur/Hvot	5-2 W	1-1 D
Fjardabyggd	1-0 W	3-2 W
KFG Gardabaer	3-2 W	4-1 W
Haukar	2-2 D	2-1 W
Magni Grenivik	1-4 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fjolnir (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UMF Selfoss

LDWWDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
04/08	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland Lower League Cup	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
29/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
25/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
18/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
08/07	Arborg Iceland Lower League Cup	4-0	5-0	12	1	W
03/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
26/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
20/06	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-4	7	5	L

Fjolnir

WDLDDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
29/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
18/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
12/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
08/07	Alftanes Iceland Lower League Cup	0-0	1-1	13	5	D
04/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
26/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	8	6	L
15/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
10/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	3-2	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Selfoss vs Fjolnir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMF Selfoss win (44%). Probabilities: UMF Selfoss 44%, draw 22%, Fjolnir 34%.

How many goals are expected in UMF Selfoss vs Fjolnir?

The model expects 4.21 goals (UMF Selfoss 2.23 · Fjolnir 1.98), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in UMF Selfoss vs Fjolnir?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.