Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 19/08, 20:00

Prediction: Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd

Team pages: Fjolnir · Fjardabyggd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

Fjolnir2.48

Fjardabyggd1.94

1X2

49% 21% 30%

Fjolnir Draw Fjardabyggd

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fjolnir 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLWDWL

Fjardabyggd 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Fjolnir 1–0 Fjardabyggd (1 last)

Fjardabyggd2-3Fjolnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fjolnir 1517 · Fjardabyggd 1471

	Fjolnir	Draw	Fjardabyggd
Our model	50%	20%	30%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fjolnir (rating 1517 vs 1471).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fjolnir	Fjardabyggd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.3	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.36 ★
2	3.40 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.16

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:50 +10’	1.73	4.20	3.40
08:04 +3’	1.85▲	4.10▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +1’	1.81	4.33	3.11
01:51	1.79▼	4.36▲	3.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fjolnir 1–0–0 Fjardabyggd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	2-3 HT 1-0	Fjolnir

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	17	12	2	3	43	22	38
2	UMF Selfoss	17	9	5	3	40	31	32
3	Kari	17	7	8	2	45	27	29
4	Fjolnir	17	7	4	6	42	38	25
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	17	7	4	6	24	29	25
6	Kormakur/Hvot	17	6	6	5	34	24	24
7	Dalvik/Reynir	17	6	3	8	25	28	21
8	Magni Grenivik	17	6	3	8	30	42	21
9	Fjardabyggd	17	6	2	9	38	35	20
10	Throttur Vogar	17	6	1	10	28	33	19
11	Hviti Riddarinn	17	3	7	7	21	32	16
12	KFG Gardabaer	17	4	1	12	24	53	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fjolnir	Fjardabyggd
UMF Selfoss	2-6 L	0-1 L
KFG Gardabaer	4-1 W	4-3 W
Vikingur Olafsvik	2-2 D	3-0 W
Haukar	2-1 W	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	2-5 L	0-3 L
Dalvik/Reynir	4-1 W	0-1 L
Kormakur/Hvot	1-1 D	2-2 D
Throttur Vogar	2-3 L	4-2 W
Kari	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fjolnir

DLDDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	2-3	2-6	5	5	L
08/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
29/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
18/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
12/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
08/07	Alftanes Iceland Lower League Cup	0-0	1-1	13	5	D
04/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
26/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	8	6	L
15/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-2	7	4	D

Fjardabyggd

LDLWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-3	2	4	W
08/08	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-2	7	8	L
29/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
25/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	4-2	5	6	W
18/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
12/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	3	0	D
04/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
20/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-3	3-4	9	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fjolnir win (49%). Probabilities: Fjolnir 49%, draw 21%, Fjardabyggd 30%.

How many goals are expected in Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd?

The model expects 4.43 goals (Fjolnir 2.48 · Fjardabyggd 1.94), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fjolnir vs Fjardabyggd?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.