Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Fjolnir vs Throttur Vogar

Team pages: Fjolnir · Throttur Vogar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

Fjolnir2.41

Throttur Vogar1.74

1X2

52% 21% 27%

Fjolnir Draw Throttur Vogar

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Fjolnir 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLLLD

Throttur Vogar 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Fjolnir 2–1 Throttur Vogar (3 last)

Throttur Vogar3-2Fjolnir
Fjolnir6-0Throttur Vogar
Throttur Vogar0-3Fjolnir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fjolnir 1481 · Throttur Vogar 1465

	Fjolnir	Draw	Throttur Vogar
Our model	52%	21%	27%
Market	52%	21%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fjolnir: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fjolnir	Throttur Vogar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.73▲	Bet365 1.73
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.38
2	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.44 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +13’	1.70	4.33	3.40
19:45 +12’	1.73▲	4.33	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +4’	1.71	4.36	3.42
22:35 +1’	1.70▼	4.38▲	3.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fjolnir 2–0–1 Throttur Vogar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Throttur Vogar	3-2 HT 2-1	Fjolnir
21/07/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Fjolnir	6-0 HT 4-0	Throttur Vogar
06/05/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Throttur Vogar	0-3 HT 0-0	Fjolnir

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	20	15	2	3	54	26	47
2	UMF Selfoss	20	11	6	3	51	34	39
3	Kari	20	9	9	2	50	29	36
4	Fjardabyggd	20	9	2	9	49	38	29
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	20	8	4	8	28	37	28
6	Fjolnir	20	7	5	8	46	44	26
7	Dalvik/Reynir	20	7	4	9	30	34	25
8	Magni Grenivik	20	7	4	9	34	50	25
9	Kormakur/Hvot	20	6	6	8	37	33	24
10	Throttur Vogar	20	6	1	13	30	40	19
11	KFG Gardabaer	20	6	1	13	33	55	19
12	Hviti Riddarinn	20	3	8	9	24	46	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fjolnir	Throttur Vogar
Hviti Riddarinn	3-3 D	3-1 W
Kari	0-1 L	0-2 L
Fjardabyggd	1-2 L	2-4 L
UMF Selfoss	2-6 L	1-3 L
KFG Gardabaer	4-1 W	5-1 W
Vikingur Olafsvik	2-2 D	1-2 L
Haukar	2-1 W	1-2 L
Magni Grenivik	2-5 L	3-4 L
Dalvik/Reynir	4-1 W	2-0 W
Kormakur/Hvot	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Fjolnir (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fjolnir

DWLWDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-3	7	3	D
23/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
19/08	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
15/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	2-3	2-6	5	5	L
08/08	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
29/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
18/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-5	–	–	L
12/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
04/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	8	6	D

Throttur Vogar

LWLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
23/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	1-3	9	4	L
19/08	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	1-2	0	4	L
15/08	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
09/08	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
29/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
25/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-4	4	6	L
17/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
12/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	5-1	7	4	W
04/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	3-4	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fjolnir vs Throttur Vogar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fjolnir win (52%). Probabilities: Fjolnir 52%, draw 21%, Throttur Vogar 27%.

How many goals are expected in Fjolnir vs Throttur Vogar?

The model expects 4.15 goals (Fjolnir 2.41 · Throttur Vogar 1.74), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fjolnir vs Throttur Vogar?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.