Football · Finland Kolmonen · 22/08, 13:00

Prediction: LPS Helsinki vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

Team pages: LPS Helsinki · MPS/Atletico Malmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

LPS Helsinki2.03

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.19

1X2

36% 21% 43%

LPS Helsinki Draw MPS/Atletico Malmi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

LPS Helsinki 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLWLW

MPS/Atletico Malmi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWDDW

Head-to-head

LPS Helsinki 0–6 MPS/Atletico Malmi (6 last)

MPS/Atletico Malmi3-1LPS Helsinki
MPS/Atletico Malmi4-1LPS Helsinki
LPS Helsinki1-4MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi5-1LPS Helsinki
LPS Helsinki2-3MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi4-1LPS Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LPS Helsinki 1541 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1528

	LPS Helsinki	Draw	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Our model	36%	21%	42%
Market	37%	21%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours MPS/Atletico Malmi: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LPS Helsinki	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2.1	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	3.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.33

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.65 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:57 +4’	2.45	4.33	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:21 +4’	2.65	3.72	2.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LPS Helsinki 0–0–6 MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	3-1	LPS Helsinki
02/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	4-1 HT 1-1	LPS Helsinki
25/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	1-4 HT 0-2	MPS/Atletico Malmi
20/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	5-1 HT 1-1	LPS Helsinki
28/04/24 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	2-3 HT 1-1	MPS/Atletico Malmi
29/07/23 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	4-1 HT 3-1	LPS Helsinki

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	15	10	2	3	34	23	32
2	ToTe	15	9	3	3	35	17	30
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	16	8	5	3	51	24	29
4	Valtti	15	7	2	6	29	30	23
5	LPS Helsinki	13	7	1	5	35	29	22
6	Tips Vantaa	15	7	1	7	33	35	22
7	Atlantis FC/PM	16	6	3	7	37	56	21
8	VJS Vantaa II	15	6	2	7	48	28	20
9	Töölön Taisto	15	3	8	4	27	30	17
10	HPS II	15	4	4	7	37	40	16
11	FC Kontu	16	3	6	7	28	40	15
12	PPS	16	2	1	13	16	58	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LPS Helsinki	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Töölön Taisto	4-1 W	2-2 D
PPS	1-2 L	2-1 W
PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-0 W	0-4 L
VJS Vantaa II	0-3 L	2-1 W
FC Kontu	4-3 W	1-1 D
Tips Vantaa	7-4 W	3-2 W
ToTe	3-1 W	0-3 L
Atlantis FC/PM	4-1 W	6-1 W
Valtti	3-2 W	1-2 L
HPS II	3-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LPS Helsinki (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LPS Helsinki

LWWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
07/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
30/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	9	L
26/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-3	0	1	W
17/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	3-2	7-4	2	4	W
13/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
29/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
22/05	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	3-2	3-4	8	3	L

MPS/Atletico Malmi

WLLWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
05/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	9	2	L
29/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	0	5	L
22/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LPS Helsinki vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MPS/Atletico Malmi win (43%). Probabilities: LPS Helsinki 36%, draw 21%, MPS/Atletico Malmi 43%.

How many goals are expected in LPS Helsinki vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model expects 4.21 goals (LPS Helsinki 2.03 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.19), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in LPS Helsinki vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.