Football · Finland Kolmonen · 29/08, 14:00

Prediction: MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Tips Vantaa

Team pages: MPS/Atletico Malmi · Tips Vantaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.37

Tips Vantaa1.74

1X2

52% 20% 28%

MPS/Atletico Malmi Draw Tips Vantaa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

MPS/Atletico Malmi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWDDWL

Tips Vantaa 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDWLWW

Head-to-head

MPS/Atletico Malmi 2–1–3 Tips Vantaa (6 last)

Tips Vantaa2-3MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi4-0Tips Vantaa
Tips Vantaa4-3MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi1-3Tips Vantaa
Tips Vantaa3-1MPS/Atletico Malmi
Tips Vantaa2-2MPS/Atletico Malmi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1511 · Tips Vantaa 1492

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Draw	Tips Vantaa
Our model	52%	21%	28%
Market	52%	20%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tips Vantaa: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Tips Vantaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	2.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.3	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +13’	1.73	4.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS/Atletico Malmi 2–1–3 Tips Vantaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	2-3 HT 0-2	MPS/Atletico Malmi
13/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	4-0 HT 1-0	Tips Vantaa
06/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	4-3 HT 2-2	MPS/Atletico Malmi
01/10/22 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	1-3 HT 0-1	Tips Vantaa
01/07/22 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	3-1 HT 1-0	MPS/Atletico Malmi
01/10/21 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	2-2 HT 1-1	MPS/Atletico Malmi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	16	10	2	4	34	28	32
2	ToTe	15	9	3	3	35	17	30
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	16	8	5	3	51	24	29
4	LPS Helsinki	15	8	2	5	42	31	26
5	Atlantis FC/PM	17	7	3	7	43	59	24
6	VJS Vantaa II	16	7	2	7	51	29	23
7	Valtti	15	7	2	6	29	30	23
8	Tips Vantaa	15	7	1	7	33	35	22
9	HPS II	17	4	5	8	40	45	17
10	Töölön Taisto	16	3	8	5	30	36	17
11	FC Kontu	16	3	6	7	28	40	15
12	PPS	16	2	1	13	16	58	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Tips Vantaa
LPS Helsinki	0-5 L	4-7 L
VJS Vantaa II	2-1 W	1-4 L
FC Kontu	1-1 D	2-0 W
Toolon Taisto	2-2 D	1-1 D
PPS	2-1 W	3-0 W
Valtti	1-2 L	3-2 W
HPS II	2-1 W	1-5 L
Atlantis FC/PM	6-1 W	2-4 L
ToTe	0-3 L	2-0 W
PPJ/Lauttasaari	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tips Vantaa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS/Atletico Malmi

LLWWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	3	6	L
13/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
05/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	9	2	L
29/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	0	5	L

Tips Vantaa

LWWLLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	8	7	W
14/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
09/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
29/07	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/07	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
25/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	0-4	2-4	6	5	L
17/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	2-3	4-7	6	4	L
12/06	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
28/05	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-5	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Tips Vantaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MPS/Atletico Malmi win (52%). Probabilities: MPS/Atletico Malmi 52%, draw 20%, Tips Vantaa 28%.

How many goals are expected in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Tips Vantaa?

The model expects 4.11 goals (MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.37 · Tips Vantaa 1.74), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Tips Vantaa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.