Football · Finland Kolmonen · 29/08, 15:30

Prediction: KaaPo vs IFK Mariehamn II

Team pages: KaaPo · IFK Mariehamn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

KaaPo1.55

IFK Mariehamn II1.91

1X2

31% 22% 46%

KaaPo Draw IFK Mariehamn II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

KaaPo 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLLW

IFK Mariehamn II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWLD

Head-to-head

KaaPo 3–1–0 IFK Mariehamn II (4 last)

IFK Mariehamn II1-2KaaPo
IFK Mariehamn II2-2KaaPo
KaaPo4-0IFK Mariehamn II
KaaPo2-1IFK Mariehamn II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KaaPo 1478 · IFK Mariehamn II 1559

	KaaPo	Draw	IFK Mariehamn II
Our model	31%	24%	46%
Market	32%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Mariehamn II (rating 1478 vs 1559).
H2H favours KaaPo: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KaaPo	IFK Mariehamn II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	2.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/13/13%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	3.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.33

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +13’	2.80	4.33	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KaaPo 3–1–0 IFK Mariehamn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	IFK Mariehamn II	1-2	KaaPo
23/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	IFK Mariehamn II	2-2	KaaPo
17/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	4-0 HT 3-0	IFK Mariehamn II
31/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	2-1 HT 0-1	IFK Mariehamn II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	16	11	3	2	35	11	36
2	IFK Mariehamn II	16	11	2	3	39	15	35
3	PIF Parainen	15	9	3	3	29	15	30
4	SalPa 2	17	8	3	6	26	22	27
5	Peimari United	16	6	7	3	28	18	25
6	MaPS	16	7	2	7	25	26	23
7	LTU	16	7	2	7	20	21	23
8	VG-62	16	7	0	9	20	22	21
9	KaaPo	16	7	0	9	28	33	21
10	JyTy	17	4	3	10	19	41	15
11	ACF	17	2	5	10	15	36	11
12	PiPS	16	2	2	12	14	38	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KaaPo	IFK Mariehamn II
VG-62	2-0 W	2-0 W
Peimari United	0-3 L	3-1 W
JyTy	1-2 L	5-0 W
EuPa	1-4 L	2-1 W
PIF Parainen	2-4 L	1-1 D
SalPa 2	0-2 L	2-0 W
MaPS	2-1 W	0-1 L
ACF	5-3 W	2-2 D
PiPS	0-1 L	3-1 W
LTU	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 6 L	7 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Mariehamn II (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KaaPo

WLWWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
14/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
06/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/07	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	1	3	L
23/06	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
17/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	10	9	W
12/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-3	5	1	W
03/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	0	L
29/05	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	3	W

IFK Mariehamn II

WWWWWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/08	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	0	5	D
25/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
18/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	11	1	W
04/07	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
27/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
06/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KaaPo vs IFK Mariehamn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IFK Mariehamn II win (46%). Probabilities: KaaPo 31%, draw 22%, IFK Mariehamn II 46%.

How many goals are expected in KaaPo vs IFK Mariehamn II?

The model expects 3.46 goals (KaaPo 1.55 · IFK Mariehamn II 1.91), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KaaPo vs IFK Mariehamn II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.