Football · Finland Kolmonen · 29/08, 11:00

Prediction: PIF Parainen vs LTU

Team pages: PIF Parainen · LTU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

PIF Parainen2.17

LTU0.89

1X2

66% 19% 14%

PIF Parainen Draw LTU

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

PIF Parainen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWLWD

LTU 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

PIF Parainen 2–1 LTU (3 last)

LTU0-1PIF Parainen
LTU2-0PIF Parainen
PIF Parainen2-0LTU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PIF Parainen 1551 · LTU 1544

	PIF Parainen	Draw	LTU
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PIF Parainen: 2-0-1.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PIF Parainen	LTU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.3	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:48 +12’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PIF Parainen 2–0–1 LTU

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LTU	0-1 HT 0-1	PIF Parainen
05/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	LTU	2-0 HT 1-0	PIF Parainen
30/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	PIF Parainen	2-0	LTU

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	16	11	3	2	35	11	36
2	IFK Mariehamn II	16	11	2	3	39	15	35
3	PIF Parainen	15	9	3	3	29	15	30
4	SalPa 2	17	8	3	6	26	22	27
5	Peimari United	16	6	7	3	28	18	25
6	MaPS	16	7	2	7	25	26	23
7	LTU	16	7	2	7	20	21	23
8	VG-62	16	7	0	9	20	22	21
9	KaaPo	16	7	0	9	28	33	21
10	JyTy	17	4	3	10	19	41	15
11	ACF	17	2	5	10	15	36	11
12	PiPS	16	2	2	12	14	38	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PIF Parainen	LTU
IFK Mariehamn II	1-1 D	0-1 L
VG-62	1-0 W	2-1 W
Peimari United	0-3 L	1-0 W
JyTy	3-1 W	2-3 L
KaaPo	4-2 W	0-2 L
EuPa	1-2 L	0-0 D
MaPS	2-0 W	2-1 W
SalPa 2	1-1 D	2-1 W
ACF	3-0 W	4-1 W
PiPS	3-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: PIF Parainen (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PIF Parainen

WWDWLWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
08/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
22/07	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-2	7	3	W
02/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
27/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
05/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	13	2	W
28/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	5	3	W

LTU

LLWWLDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
11/08	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
07/08	ACF Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	7	6	W
31/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
04/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
26/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
13/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
04/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	14	3	L
29/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PIF Parainen vs LTU?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PIF Parainen win (66%). Probabilities: PIF Parainen 66%, draw 19%, LTU 14%.

How many goals are expected in PIF Parainen vs LTU?

The model expects 3.06 goals (PIF Parainen 2.17 · LTU 0.89), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PIF Parainen vs LTU?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.