Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/08, 19:15

Prediction: HPS II vs LPS Helsinki

Team pages: HPS II · LPS Helsinki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.54Total

HPS II1.9

LPS Helsinki2.65

1X2

27% 19% 54%

HPS II Draw LPS Helsinki

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS II 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLDL

LPS Helsinki 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

HPS II 1–0 LPS Helsinki (1 last)

LPS Helsinki3-4HPS II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS II 1454 · LPS Helsinki 1563

	HPS II	Draw	LPS Helsinki
Our model	27%	19%	54%
Market	27%	19%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 4.54 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LPS Helsinki (rating 1454 vs 1563).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS II	LPS Helsinki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.6	3.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.4	1.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X4.75

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.95

Under 4.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +9’	3.30	4.75	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS II 1–0–0 LPS Helsinki

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	3-4 HT 3-2	HPS II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	16	10	2	4	34	28	32
2	ToTe	15	9	3	3	35	17	30
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	16	8	5	3	51	24	29
4	LPS Helsinki	14	8	1	5	40	29	25
5	VJS Vantaa II	16	7	2	7	51	29	23
6	Valtti	15	7	2	6	29	30	23
7	Tips Vantaa	15	7	1	7	33	35	22
8	Atlantis FC/PM	16	6	3	7	37	56	21
9	Töölön Taisto	15	3	8	4	27	30	17
10	HPS II	16	4	4	8	38	43	16
11	FC Kontu	16	3	6	7	28	40	15
12	PPS	16	2	1	13	16	58	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS II	LPS Helsinki
VJS Vantaa II	1-3 L	0-3 L
PPS	2-2 D	1-2 L
Atlantis FC/PM	3-4 L	4-1 W
FC Kontu	2-3 L	4-3 W
PPJ/Lauttasaari	3-3 D	1-0 W
ToTe	2-3 L	3-1 W
MPS/Atletico Malmi	1-2 L	5-0 W
Töölön Taisto	2-2 D	4-1 W
Valtti	1-3 L	3-2 W
Tips Vantaa	5-1 W	7-4 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	8 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: LPS Helsinki (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS II

WLDLLDLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
13/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	2	D
06/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-4	8	2	L
31/07	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
26/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	3-2	3-3	7	3	D
25/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	5	5	L
16/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
11/06	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
05/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	8	0	L
28/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	5	4	W

LPS Helsinki

WWWWWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	8	6	W
14/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
07/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
30/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	9	L
26/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-3	0	1	W
17/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	3-2	7-4	2	4	W
13/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
29/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS II vs LPS Helsinki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LPS Helsinki win (54%). Probabilities: HPS II 27%, draw 19%, LPS Helsinki 54%.

How many goals are expected in HPS II vs LPS Helsinki?

The model expects 4.54 goals (HPS II 1.9 · LPS Helsinki 2.65), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS II vs LPS Helsinki?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.