Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/09, 19:00

Prediction: ToTe vs HPS II

Team pages: ToTe · HPS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

ToTe2.49

HPS II1.68

1X2

55% 19% 25%

ToTe Draw HPS II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

ToTe 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWDLW

HPS II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLDLWW

Head-to-head

ToTe 1–0 HPS II (1 last)

HPS II2-3ToTe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ToTe 1550 · HPS II 1477

	ToTe	Draw	HPS II
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	56%	19%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ToTe (rating 1550 vs 1477).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ToTe	HPS II
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	2.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/13/13%	11/22/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:51 +15’	1.61	4.75	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ToTe 1–0–0 HPS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	HPS II	2-3 HT 1-3	ToTe

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	20	13	2	5	46	33	41
2	ToTe	19	11	4	4	43	23	37
3	Tips Vantaa	20	11	2	7	45	41	35
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	20	9	6	5	54	28	33
5	LPS Helsinki	18	10	2	6	50	35	32
6	Valtti	19	9	2	8	40	38	29
7	VJS Vantaa II	20	8	3	9	60	37	27
8	Atlantis FC/PM	20	8	3	9	51	72	27
9	HPS II	20	6	5	9	47	51	23
10	Töölön Taisto	20	4	9	7	40	46	21
11	FC Kontu	20	4	6	10	33	49	18
12	PPS	20	2	2	16	20	76	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ToTe	HPS II
LPS Helsinki	2-0 W	2-2 D
VJS Vantaa II	3-3 D	1-3 L
FC Kontu	2-1 W	2-3 L
Atlantis FC/PM	2-2 D	3-4 L
Tips Vantaa	0-2 L	1-2 L
PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-1 D	3-3 D
PPS	3-1 W	2-2 D
Valtti	2-0 W	3-2 W
Töölön Taisto	4-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: ToTe (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ToTe

WWWDLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/09	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
07/09	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
28/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	6	6	D
14/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
08/08	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	8	5	W
24/07	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/07	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-1	0	5	W

HPS II

LDLLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-2	5	1	W
10/09	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
04/09	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
22/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
13/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	2	D
06/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-4	8	2	L
31/07	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
26/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	3-2	3-3	7	3	D
25/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ToTe vs HPS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ToTe win (55%). Probabilities: ToTe 55%, draw 19%, HPS II 25%.

How many goals are expected in ToTe vs HPS II?

The model expects 4.17 goals (ToTe 2.49 · HPS II 1.68), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in ToTe vs HPS II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.