Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: LPS Helsinki vs Tips Vantaa

Team pages: LPS Helsinki · Tips Vantaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

LPS Helsinki2.79

Tips Vantaa1.57

1X2

63% 17% 20%

LPS Helsinki Draw Tips Vantaa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

LPS Helsinki 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWWLW

Tips Vantaa 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

LPS Helsinki 4–2 Tips Vantaa (6 last)

Tips Vantaa4-7LPS Helsinki
Tips Vantaa1-3LPS Helsinki
LPS Helsinki4-2Tips Vantaa
Tips Vantaa1-2LPS Helsinki
Tips Vantaa4-0LPS Helsinki
LPS Helsinki1-5Tips Vantaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LPS Helsinki 1556 · Tips Vantaa 1564

	LPS Helsinki	Draw	Tips Vantaa
Our model	63%	18%	19%
Market	64%	16%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LPS Helsinki: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LPS Helsinki	Tips Vantaa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/33/11%	63/25/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.95

Under 4.51.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +24’	1.40	5.75	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LPS Helsinki 4–0–2 Tips Vantaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	4-7 HT 2-3	LPS Helsinki
05/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	1-3 HT 1-1	LPS Helsinki
30/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	4-2 HT 2-2	Tips Vantaa
05/04/24 Finland Cup	Tips Vantaa	1-2 HT 0-1	LPS Helsinki
09/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	4-0 HT 2-0	LPS Helsinki
03/06/22 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	1-5 HT 0-1	Tips Vantaa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	21	13	2	6	47	36	41
2	Tips Vantaa	21	12	2	7	47	41	38
3	ToTe	20	11	4	5	44	25	37
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	21	10	6	5	61	32	36
5	LPS Helsinki	19	11	2	6	53	36	35
6	Valtti	20	10	2	8	43	39	32
7	VJS Vantaa II	21	9	3	9	64	39	30
8	Atlantis FC/PM	21	8	3	10	51	74	27
9	HPS II	21	7	5	9	49	52	26
10	Töölön Taisto	21	4	9	8	42	50	21
11	FC Kontu	21	4	6	11	34	52	18
12	PPS	21	2	2	17	24	83	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LPS Helsinki	Tips Vantaa
FC Kontu	3-1 W	2-1 W
ToTe	0-2 L	2-0 W
Atlantis FC/PM	5-1 W	2-0 W
Valtti	3-1 W	3-2 W
HPS II	2-2 D	2-1 W
MPS/Atletico Malmi	5-0 W	3-1 W
Töölön Taisto	4-1 W	5-3 W
PPS	1-2 L	3-0 W
PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-0 W	0-0 D
VJS Vantaa II	0-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 3 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: LPS Helsinki (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LPS Helsinki

LWLWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
18/09	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/09	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	4-0	5-1	3	4	W
05/09	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
27/08	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
22/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	8	6	W
14/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
07/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
30/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	9	L

Tips Vantaa

WLWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	11	5	W
04/09	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-3	4	7	W
29/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
21/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	8	7	W
14/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
09/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
29/07	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LPS Helsinki vs Tips Vantaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LPS Helsinki win (63%). Probabilities: LPS Helsinki 63%, draw 17%, Tips Vantaa 20%.

How many goals are expected in LPS Helsinki vs Tips Vantaa?

The model expects 4.36 goals (LPS Helsinki 2.79 · Tips Vantaa 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LPS Helsinki vs Tips Vantaa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.