Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: HPS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

Team pages: HPS II · MPS/Atletico Malmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

HPS II1.67

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.39

1X2

26% 21% 53%

HPS II Draw MPS/Atletico Malmi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDLWWW

MPS/Atletico Malmi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLWWWL

Head-to-head

HPS II 0–1 MPS/Atletico Malmi (1 last)

MPS/Atletico Malmi2-1HPS II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS II 1498 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1525

	HPS II	Draw	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Our model	26%	21%	53%
Market	26%	21%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS II	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.4	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.20

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +8’	3.50	4.20	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS II 0–0–1 MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	2-1 HT 2-0	HPS II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	21	13	2	6	47	36	41
2	Tips Vantaa	21	12	2	7	47	41	38
3	ToTe	20	11	4	5	44	25	37
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	21	10	6	5	61	32	36
5	LPS Helsinki	19	11	2	6	53	36	35
6	Valtti	20	10	2	8	43	39	32
7	VJS Vantaa II	21	9	3	9	64	39	30
8	Atlantis FC/PM	21	8	3	10	51	74	27
9	HPS II	21	7	5	9	49	52	26
10	Töölön Taisto	21	4	9	8	42	50	21
11	FC Kontu	21	4	6	11	34	52	18
12	PPS	21	2	2	17	24	83	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS II	MPS/Atletico Malmi
ToTe	2-1 W	2-1 W
Töölön Taisto	3-2 W	2-2 D
Valtti	3-2 W	1-3 L
Tips Vantaa	1-2 L	1-3 L
LPS Helsinki	2-2 D	0-5 L
VJS Vantaa II	1-3 L	2-1 W
PPS	2-2 D	2-1 W
Atlantis FC/PM	3-4 L	7-1 W
FC Kontu	2-3 L	1-1 D
PPJ/Lauttasaari	3-3 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MPS/Atletico Malmi (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS II

DLLDLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
17/09	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-2	5	1	W
10/09	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
04/09	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
22/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
13/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	2	D
06/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-4	8	2	L
31/07	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
26/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	3-2	3-3	7	3	D

MPS/Atletico Malmi

WDDWLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-1	2	2	W
11/09	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
03/09	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
22/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	3	6	L
13/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MPS/Atletico Malmi win (53%). Probabilities: HPS II 26%, draw 21%, MPS/Atletico Malmi 53%.

How many goals are expected in HPS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model expects 4.06 goals (HPS II 1.67 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.39), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.