Football · Finland Kolmonen · 24/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Kontu vs LPS Helsinki

Team pages: FC Kontu · LPS Helsinki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

FC Kontu1.68

LPS Helsinki2.56

1X2

25% 19% 57%

FC Kontu Draw LPS Helsinki

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kontu 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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LPS Helsinki 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWDWWL

Head-to-head

FC Kontu 2–2–2 LPS Helsinki (6 last)

LPS Helsinki4-3FC Kontu
LPS Helsinki4-4FC Kontu
FC Kontu3-2LPS Helsinki
LPS Helsinki3-3FC Kontu
FC Kontu5-1LPS Helsinki
FC Kontu1-2LPS Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kontu 1462 · LPS Helsinki 1537

	FC Kontu	Draw	LPS Helsinki
Our model	24%	20%	56%
Market	25%	18%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LPS Helsinki (rating 1462 vs 1537).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kontu	LPS Helsinki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.4	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	67/22/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X5.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +7’	3.60	5.00	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kontu 2–2–2 LPS Helsinki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	4-3 HT 3-0	FC Kontu
04/10/24 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	4-4 HT 3-2	FC Kontu
18/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	FC Kontu	3-2 HT 3-0	LPS Helsinki
08/09/23 Finland Kolmonen	LPS Helsinki	3-3 HT 2-0	FC Kontu
02/06/23 Finland Kolmonen	FC Kontu	5-1 HT 2-1	LPS Helsinki
21/04/17 Finland Kolmonen	FC Kontu	1-2 HT 0-0	LPS Helsinki

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	20	13	2	5	46	33	41
2	ToTe	19	11	4	4	43	23	37
3	Tips Vantaa	20	11	2	7	45	41	35
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	20	9	6	5	54	28	33
5	LPS Helsinki	18	10	2	6	50	35	32
6	Valtti	19	9	2	8	40	38	29
7	VJS Vantaa II	20	8	3	9	60	37	27
8	Atlantis FC/PM	20	8	3	9	51	72	27
9	HPS II	20	6	5	9	47	51	23
10	Töölön Taisto	20	4	9	7	40	46	21
11	FC Kontu	20	4	6	10	33	49	18
12	PPS	20	2	2	16	20	76	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kontu	LPS Helsinki
VJS Vantaa II	2-1 W	0-3 L
Töölön Taisto	1-4 L	4-1 W
ToTe	1-2 L	0-2 L
Valtti	2-2 D	3-1 W
PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-4 L	1-0 W
MPS/Atletico Malmi	1-1 D	5-0 W
HPS II	3-2 W	2-2 D
Atlantis FC/PM	2-3 L	5-1 W
PPS	4-3 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LPS Helsinki (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kontu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
12/09	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
04/09	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
21/08	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
14/08	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-4	3	4	L
07/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
31/07	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
23/07	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	1	4	L
02/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	14	4	W

LPS Helsinki

WLWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/09	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	4-0	5-1	3	4	W
05/09	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
27/08	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
22/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	8	6	W
14/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
07/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
30/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	9	L
26/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-3	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kontu vs LPS Helsinki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LPS Helsinki win (57%). Probabilities: FC Kontu 25%, draw 19%, LPS Helsinki 57%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kontu vs LPS Helsinki?

The model expects 4.25 goals (FC Kontu 1.68 · LPS Helsinki 2.56), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kontu vs LPS Helsinki?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.