Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: PPS vs FC Kontu

Team pages: PPS · FC Kontu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.54Total

PPS1.69

FC Kontu2.86

1X2

21% 17% 62%

PPS Draw FC Kontu

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

PPS 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLDLL

FC Kontu 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

PPS 0–1 FC Kontu (1 last)

FC Kontu4-3PPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PPS 1415 · FC Kontu 1454

	PPS	Draw	FC Kontu
Our model	21%	18%	61%
Market	21%	16%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 4.54 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PPS	FC Kontu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3.6	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X5.50

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +19’	4.20	5.50	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PPS 0–0–1 FC Kontu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Kontu	4-3 HT 1-1	PPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	21	13	2	6	47	36	41
2	Tips Vantaa	21	12	2	7	47	41	38
3	ToTe	20	11	4	5	44	25	37
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	21	10	6	5	61	32	36
5	LPS Helsinki	19	11	2	6	53	36	35
6	Valtti	20	10	2	8	43	39	32
7	VJS Vantaa II	21	9	3	9	64	39	30
8	Atlantis FC/PM	21	8	3	10	51	74	27
9	HPS II	21	7	5	9	49	52	26
10	Töölön Taisto	21	4	9	8	42	50	21
11	FC Kontu	21	4	6	11	34	52	18
12	PPS	21	2	2	17	24	83	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PPS	FC Kontu
PPJ/Lauttasaari	4-7 L	1-4 L
Valtti	2-7 L	2-2 D
Töölön Taisto	1-1 D	1-4 L
Atlantis FC/PM	1-6 L	2-3 L
VJS Vantaa II	0-4 L	2-1 W
Tips Vantaa	0-3 L	1-2 L
HPS II	2-2 D	3-2 W
LPS Helsinki	2-1 W	1-3 L
ToTe	1-3 L	1-2 L
MPS/Atletico Malmi	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 7 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kontu (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PPS

LLWDLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	4-3	4-7	2	3	L
18/09	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	–	2-7	3	1	L
11/09	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
04/09	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
28/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
21/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
13/08	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	1	2	D
07/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
01/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
24/07	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	9	3	L

FC Kontu

LWDLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
12/09	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
04/09	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
21/08	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
14/08	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-4	3	4	L
07/08	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
31/07	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
23/07	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PPS vs FC Kontu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Kontu win (62%). Probabilities: PPS 21%, draw 17%, FC Kontu 62%.

How many goals are expected in PPS vs FC Kontu?

The model expects 4.54 goals (PPS 1.69 · FC Kontu 2.86), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PPS vs FC Kontu?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.