Football · Finland Kolmonen · 21/08, 17:00

Prediction: ACF vs EuPa

Team pages: ACF · EuPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

ACF0.99

EuPa2.42

1X2

14% 18% 69%

ACF Draw EuPa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

ACF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWLDLW

EuPa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWDWWD

Head-to-head

ACF 0–1 EuPa (1 last)

EuPa1-0ACF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACF 1450 · EuPa 1549

	ACF	Draw	EuPa
Our model	13%	19%	68%
Market	14%	16%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EuPa (rating 1450 vs 1549).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACF	EuPa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.82

2 (-1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
02:43 +5’	6.25	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ACF 0–0–1 EuPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	EuPa	1-0	ACF

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	15	11	1	3	38	14	34
2	EuPa	15	10	3	2	33	11	33
3	PIF Parainen	14	9	2	3	28	14	29
4	MaPS	15	7	2	6	24	24	23
5	Peimari United	15	5	7	3	26	18	22
6	VG-62	14	7	0	7	19	18	21
7	SalPa 2	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	LTU	15	6	2	7	18	20	20
9	KaaPo	15	6	0	9	26	33	18
10	JyTy	15	3	3	9	17	38	12
11	ACF	15	2	5	8	13	31	11
12	PiPS	15	2	2	11	14	35	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACF	EuPa
PiPS	2-1 W	4-1 W
LTU	1-4 L	0-0 D
IFK Mariehamn II	2-2 D	1-2 L
VG-62	0-3 L	1-2 L
JyTy	2-0 W	1-1 D
Peimari United	2-2 D	1-1 D
KaaPo	3-5 L	4-1 W
PIF Parainen	0-3 L	2-1 W
MaPS	0-3 L	5-1 W
SalPa 2	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: EuPa (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACF

DLLLDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
07/08	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-4	0	6	L
02/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
23/07	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
25/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
12/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-5	3	1	L
05/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
29/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
22/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

EuPa

DWLWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
01/08	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
25/07	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
02/07	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
27/06	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	3	5	W
05/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
30/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACF vs EuPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an EuPa win (69%). Probabilities: ACF 14%, draw 18%, EuPa 69%.

How many goals are expected in ACF vs EuPa?

The model expects 3.4 goals (ACF 0.99 · EuPa 2.42), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ACF vs EuPa?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.