Football · Finland Kolmonen · 21/08, 18:00

Prediction: LTU vs MaPS

Team pages: LTU · MaPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

LTU1.7

MaPS1.5

1X2

42% 24% 34%

LTU Draw MaPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LTU 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDWWW

MaPS 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLWW

Head-to-head

LTU 0–4 MaPS (4 last)

MaPS3-1LTU
LTU0-1MaPS
MaPS2-1LTU
LTU1-2MaPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LTU 1503 · MaPS 1519

	LTU	Draw	MaPS
Our model	41%	25%	33%
Market	43%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours MaPS: 4-0-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LTU	MaPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	13/38/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	2.5 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:39 +5’	2.10	4.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LTU 0–0–4 MaPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	MaPS	3-1 HT 1-0	LTU
28/02/26 Finland Cup	LTU	0-1 HT 0-0	MaPS
22/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	MaPS	2-1 HT 1-0	LTU
16/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	LTU	1-2 HT 0-1	MaPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	15	11	1	3	38	14	34
2	EuPa	15	10	3	2	33	11	33
3	PIF Parainen	14	9	2	3	28	14	29
4	MaPS	15	7	2	6	24	24	23
5	Peimari United	15	5	7	3	26	18	22
6	VG-62	14	7	0	7	19	18	21
7	SalPa 2	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	LTU	15	6	2	7	18	20	20
9	KaaPo	15	6	0	9	26	33	18
10	JyTy	15	3	3	9	17	38	12
11	ACF	15	2	5	8	13	31	11
12	PiPS	15	2	2	11	14	35	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LTU	MaPS
SalPa 2	2-1 W	2-4 L
ACF	4-1 W	3-0 W
PiPS	4-2 W	3-2 W
EuPa	0-0 D	1-5 L
IFK Mariehamn II	0-1 L	1-0 W
VG-62	2-1 W	2-1 W
Peimari United	1-0 W	1-2 L
JyTy	2-3 L	1-1 D
KaaPo	0-2 L	1-2 L
PIF Parainen	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: LTU (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LTU

LLLWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
07/08	ACF Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	7	6	W
31/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
04/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
26/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
13/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
04/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	14	3	L
29/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
22/05	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	4	1	L

MaPS

WWLLLLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
31/07	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
27/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
17/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	5	9	L
12/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	5	5	L
02/06	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-4	9	0	L
29/05	ACF Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-0	11	3	W
22/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LTU vs MaPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LTU win (42%). Probabilities: LTU 42%, draw 24%, MaPS 34%.

How many goals are expected in LTU vs MaPS?

The model expects 3.2 goals (LTU 1.7 · MaPS 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LTU vs MaPS?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.