Football · Finland Kolmonen · 21/08, 17:30

Prediction: VG-62 vs KaaPo

Team pages: VG-62 · KaaPo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

VG-621.99

KaaPo1.62

1X2

46% 22% 31%

VG-62 Draw KaaPo

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

VG-62 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWLLL

KaaPo 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

VG-62 0–6 KaaPo (6 last)

KaaPo3-1VG-62
VG-621-5KaaPo
KaaPo4-1VG-62
KaaPo6-1VG-62
VG-620-3KaaPo
VG-622-3KaaPo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VG-62 1459 · KaaPo 1469

	VG-62	Draw	KaaPo
Our model	46%	23%	31%
Market	47%	21%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KaaPo: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VG-62	KaaPo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/0/56%	71/14/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.4	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +8’	1.91	4.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VG-62 0–0–6 KaaPo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	3-1 HT 1-1	VG-62
23/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	1-5 HT 0-3	KaaPo
10/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	4-1 HT 3-1	VG-62
14/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	6-1 HT 3-1	VG-62
31/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	0-3 HT 0-0	KaaPo
18/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	2-3 HT 1-0	KaaPo

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	15	11	1	3	38	14	34
2	EuPa	15	10	3	2	33	11	33
3	PIF Parainen	14	9	2	3	28	14	29
4	MaPS	15	7	2	6	24	24	23
5	Peimari United	15	5	7	3	26	18	22
6	VG-62	14	7	0	7	19	18	21
7	SalPa 2	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
8	LTU	15	6	2	7	18	20	20
9	KaaPo	15	6	0	9	26	33	18
10	JyTy	15	3	3	9	17	38	12
11	ACF	15	2	5	8	13	31	11
12	PiPS	15	2	2	11	14	35	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VG-62	KaaPo
PIF Parainen	0-1 L	2-4 L
MaPS	1-2 L	2-1 W
SalPa 2	1-3 L	0-2 L
ACF	3-0 W	5-3 W
LTU	1-2 L	2-0 W
PiPS	3-0 W	0-1 L
IFK Mariehamn II	0-2 L	2-1 W
EuPa	2-1 W	1-4 L
Peimari United	1-3 L	0-3 L
JyTy	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: VG-62 (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VG-62

WLWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
07/08	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
28/07	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
23/07	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/06	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
13/06	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
05/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/05	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

KaaPo

WWLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
06/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/07	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	1	3	L
23/06	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
17/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	10	9	W
12/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-3	5	1	W
03/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	0	L
29/05	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
23/05	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VG-62 vs KaaPo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VG-62 win (46%). Probabilities: VG-62 46%, draw 22%, KaaPo 31%.

How many goals are expected in VG-62 vs KaaPo?

The model expects 3.62 goals (VG-62 1.99 · KaaPo 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VG-62 vs KaaPo?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.