Football · Finland Kolmonen · 12/08, 17:30

Prediction: LoPa vs MPS

Team pages: LoPa · MPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

LoPa2.31

MPS1.05

1X2

65% 19% 16%

LoPa Draw MPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

LoPa 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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MPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLWLLL

Head-to-head

LoPa 1–0 MPS (1 last)

MPS0-2LoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LoPa 1479 · MPS 1425

	LoPa	Draw	MPS
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	66%	18%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LoPa (rating 1479 vs 1425).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LoPa	MPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:03 +1’	1.36	5.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LoPa 1–0–0 MPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	0-2	LoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	14	11	1	2	55	20	34
2	ESPA	14	11	1	2	35	11	34
3	LePa	14	8	2	4	29	24	26
4	Poxyt	14	8	1	5	32	29	25
5	NuPS	14	6	4	4	26	19	22
6	LoPa	14	6	1	7	22	23	19
7	Gilla FC	14	5	2	7	29	31	17
8	PPJ/Ruoholahti	14	4	3	7	21	36	15
9	GrIFK Reservi	14	4	2	8	24	28	14
10	MPS	14	3	3	8	12	25	12
11	EPS Reservi	14	3	3	8	20	42	12
12	HooGee	14	3	1	10	23	40	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LoPa	MPS
LePa	2-3 L	0-1 L
EPS Reservi	4-1 W	0-0 D
ESPA	0-2 L	0-4 L
Gilla FC	3-2 W	2-3 L
Poxyt	2-0 W	3-2 W
GrIFK Reservi	1-2 L	0-3 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-3 L	0-0 D
HooGee	1-2 L	2-0 W
NuPS	2-2 D	0-2 L
EIF Academy	2-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: LoPa (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LoPa

LDLLLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	2	2	W
27/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
16/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
12/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
29/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
15/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-3	5	1	L

MPS

LLDWDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
28/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
22/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-4	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LoPa vs MPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LoPa win (65%). Probabilities: LoPa 65%, draw 19%, MPS 16%.

How many goals are expected in LoPa vs MPS?

The model expects 3.36 goals (LoPa 2.31 · MPS 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LoPa vs MPS?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.