Football · Finland Kolmonen · 21/08, 18:00

Prediction: MPS vs ESPA

Team pages: MPS · ESPA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

MPS0.68

ESPA2.49

1X2

8% 15% 77%

MPS Draw ESPA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

MPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWLLLL

ESPA 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

MPS 0–3 ESPA (3 last)

ESPA4-0MPS
MPS0-8ESPA
ESPA3-1MPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS 1426 · ESPA 1602

	MPS	Draw	ESPA
Our model	7%	16%	76%
Market	9%	13%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1426 vs 1602).
H2H favours ESPA: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS	ESPA
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	2.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

110.00

X7.00

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.90

2 (-2.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 10.00▲	Bet365 10.00
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	1.18 → 1.17▼	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
02:48 +2’	8.00	7.00	1.18
06:42 +2’	10.00▲	7.00	1.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS 0–0–3 ESPA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	4-0 HT 4-0	MPS
25/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	0-8 HT 0-2	ESPA
16/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	3-1	MPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	15	12	1	2	57	20	37
2	ESPA	15	12	1	2	39	12	37
3	LePa	15	9	2	4	34	28	29
4	Poxyt	15	8	2	5	34	31	26
5	NuPS	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
6	LoPa	15	7	1	7	24	24	22
7	GrIFK Reservi	15	5	2	8	27	30	17
8	Gilla FC	15	5	2	8	30	35	17
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	15	4	3	8	23	39	15
10	EPS Reservi	15	3	4	8	22	44	13
11	MPS	15	3	3	9	13	27	12
12	HooGee	15	3	1	11	27	45	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS	ESPA
LoPa	1-2 L	2-0 W
GrIFK Reservi	0-3 L	2-4 L
Gilla FC	2-3 L	4-1 W
EIF Academy	0-4 L	1-1 D
Poxyt	3-2 W	4-1 W
NuPS	0-2 L	2-0 W
EPS Reservi	0-0 D	4-2 W
HooGee	2-0 W	3-0 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-0 D	1-0 W
LePa	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (10 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS

LDWDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
28/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
22/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

ESPA

DWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-1	3	4	W
07/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
31/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	9	5	L
12/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
05/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
29/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	11	5	W
21/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	10	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS vs ESPA?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESPA win (77%). Probabilities: MPS 8%, draw 15%, ESPA 77%.

How many goals are expected in MPS vs ESPA?

The model expects 3.17 goals (MPS 0.68 · ESPA 2.49), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS vs ESPA?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.