Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/08, 19:15

Prediction: LePa vs MPS

Team pages: LePa · MPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

LePa2.23

MPS0.89

1X2

67% 19% 13%

LePa Draw MPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

LePa 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWLWW

MPS 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDLWLD

Head-to-head

LePa 1–0 MPS (1 last)

MPS0-1LePa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LePa 1548 · MPS 1456

	LePa	Draw	MPS
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	68%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LePa (rating 1548 vs 1456).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LePa	MPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	11/33/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
2	5.25 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 13.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:54 +11’	1.36	5.00	5.25
13:58 +7’	1.30▼	4.75▼	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LePa 1–0–0 MPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	0-1 HT 0-1	LePa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	16	12	2	2	59	22	38
2	ESPA	16	12	2	2	41	14	38
3	LePa	16	10	2	4	35	28	32
4	Poxyt	16	8	2	6	35	34	26
5	LoPa	16	7	2	7	26	26	23
6	NuPS	16	6	4	6	26	22	22
7	GrIFK Reservi	16	6	2	8	30	31	20
8	Gilla FC	16	6	2	8	32	35	20
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	16	4	3	9	23	41	15
10	MPS	16	3	4	9	15	29	13
11	HooGee	16	4	1	11	29	45	13
12	EPS Reservi	16	3	4	9	22	46	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LePa	MPS
NuPS	1-0 W	0-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-1 W	0-0 D
GrIFK Reservi	0-4 L	0-3 L
HooGee	3-1 W	2-0 W
LoPa	3-1 W	0-2 L
Poxyt	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LePa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LePa

LDWWDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
10/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
07/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
27/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	0	W
03/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/04	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
19/04	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-4	4	1	L

MPS

LLLDWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
28/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
22/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-4	2	1	L
08/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LePa vs MPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LePa win (67%). Probabilities: LePa 67%, draw 19%, MPS 13%.

How many goals are expected in LePa vs MPS?

The model expects 3.12 goals (LePa 2.23 · MPS 0.89), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LePa vs MPS?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.