Football · Finland Kolmonen · 24/09, 19:30

Prediction: MPS vs Poxyt

Team pages: MPS · Poxyt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

MPS1.91

Poxyt1.85

1X2

40% 23% 37%

MPS Draw Poxyt

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

MPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLWDL

Poxyt 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLWLW

Head-to-head

MPS 1–0 Poxyt (1 last)

Poxyt2-3MPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS 1441 · Poxyt 1486

	MPS	Draw	Poxyt
Our model	40%	23%	37%
Market	40%	22%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poxyt (rating 1441 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS	Poxyt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.5	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	43/0/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.00

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +7’	2.25	4.00	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS 1–0–0 Poxyt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	2-3 HT 2-1	MPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	20	14	4	2	69	28	46
2	ESPA	20	12	3	5	43	23	39
3	LePa	20	11	3	6	41	34	36
4	Poxyt	20	10	2	8	43	41	32
5	LOPA	20	9	3	8	34	34	30
6	Gilla FC	20	8	3	9	48	42	27
7	NuPS	20	7	5	8	31	31	26
8	GrIFK Reservi	20	8	2	10	36	41	26
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	20	6	3	11	31	50	21
10	HooGee	20	6	2	12	37	51	20
11	EPS Reservi	20	5	5	10	30	52	20
12	MPS	20	4	5	11	22	38	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS	Poxyt
EPS Reservi	1-3 L	2-2 D
HooGee	3-3 D	2-1 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-1 W	1-2 L
LePa	0-2 L	1-5 L
ESPA	2-2 D	3-0 W
GrIFK Reservi	0-3 L	1-3 L
Gilla FC	2-3 L	3-1 W
EIF Academy	0-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Poxyt (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS

WLLLLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
10/09	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
04/09	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
26/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
21/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
12/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W

Poxyt

LWLWDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/09	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	5	1	L
04/09	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
21/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
16/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
08/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	2	2	L
23/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
28/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS vs Poxyt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MPS win (40%). Probabilities: MPS 40%, draw 23%, Poxyt 37%.

How many goals are expected in MPS vs Poxyt?

The model expects 3.76 goals (MPS 1.91 · Poxyt 1.85), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS vs Poxyt?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.