Football · USA MLS · 24/09, 03:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Seattle Sounders1.64

Real Salt Lake1.19

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Seattle Sounders Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDDDD

Real Salt Lake 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 1–1–4 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Real Salt Lake2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-0Seattle Sounders
Real Salt Lake3-0Seattle Sounders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1429 · Real Salt Lake 1431

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	47%	27%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	1.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:38 +4’	1.95	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 1–1–4 Real Salt Lake

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
12/10/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
01/03/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
30/05/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
16/05/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
23/07/23 Leagues Cup	Real Salt Lake	3-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	24	14	4	6	53	23	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Austin FC	25	7	8	10	32	44	29
14	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

LLLLLLDDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L

Real Salt Lake

LLDDLLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (47%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 47%, draw 26%, Real Salt Lake 27%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.64 · Real Salt Lake 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.