Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 04:30

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Portland Timbers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

San Jose Earthquakes2.12

Portland Timbers1.59

1X2

49% 23% 28%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw Portland Timbers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDDWWD

Portland Timbers 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWDLL

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 3–2–1 Portland Timbers (6 last)

Portland Timbers1-3San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes3-2Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes0-0Portland Timbers
San Jose Earthquakes4-1Portland Timbers
San Jose Earthquakes1-2Portland Timbers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1499 · Portland Timbers 1484

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	Portland Timbers
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Jose Earthquakes: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	Portland Timbers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.90

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.98
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.97 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +4’	1.95	3.90	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +447’	1.98	3.97	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 3–2–1 Portland Timbers

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-3 HT 1-3	San Jose Earthquakes
12/02/26 America Friendlies	San Jose Earthquakes	3-2	Portland Timbers
14/06/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-1 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
21/05/25 USA US Open Cup	San Jose Earthquakes	0-0 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers
04/05/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	4-1 HT 3-1	Portland Timbers
05/02/25 World Club Friendlies	San Jose Earthquakes	1-2	Portland Timbers

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Jose Earthquakes	Portland Timbers
Los Angeles FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
San Diego FC	3-2 W	3-1 W
Austin FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Minnesota United	1-5 L	5-4 W
St. Louis City SC	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Jose Earthquakes

DLLLLDDWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	18	4	D
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	7	D

Portland Timbers

WWLWDLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
13/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
06/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-2	5-4	4	4	W
30/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Jose Earthquakes win (49%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 49%, draw 23%, Portland Timbers 28%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?

The model expects 3.71 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 2.12 · Portland Timbers 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.