Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 04:30

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United

Team pages: Vancouver Whitecaps · DC United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Vancouver Whitecaps2.29

DC United0.8

1X2

71% 18% 11%

Vancouver Whitecaps Draw DC United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver Whitecaps 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWLWLW

DC United 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDLLDWDL

Head-to-head

Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2–3 DC United (6 last)

Vancouver Whitecaps2-2DC United
Vancouver Whitecaps1-1DC United
Vancouver Whitecaps1-0DC United
DC United3-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps0-1DC United
DC United4-0Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver Whitecaps 1498 · DC United 1474

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	DC United
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours DC United: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver Whitecaps	DC United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.9	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 1 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.57 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Pinn 9.76

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +5’	1.30	5.25	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +510’	1.25	6.57	9.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2–3 DC United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/10/23 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	2-2 HT 1-1	DC United
01/02/23 World Club Friendlies	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-1 HT 1-1	DC United
18/08/19 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 HT 1-0	DC United
15/07/18 USA MLS	DC United	3-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
28/05/17 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-1 HT 0-0	DC United
09/04/16 USA MLS	DC United	4-0 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver Whitecaps	DC United
Houston Dynamo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Los Angeles FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vancouver Whitecaps

DDWLWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
14/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
06/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	6	7	L
30/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

DC United

DWDDLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (71%). Probabilities: Vancouver Whitecaps 71%, draw 18%, DC United 11%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Vancouver Whitecaps 2.29 · DC United 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.