Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 31/07, 16:00

Prediction: FC Yaypan Fergana vs Fardu Ferghana

Team pages: FC Yaypan Fergana · Fardu Ferghana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

FC Yaypan Fergana1.71

Fardu Ferghana1.37

1X2

45% 26% 30%

FC Yaypan Fergana Draw Fardu Ferghana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Yaypan Fergana 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWLLL

Fardu Ferghana 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDDLWLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Yaypan Fergana 1446 · Fardu Ferghana 1464

	FC Yaypan Fergana	Draw	Fardu Ferghana
Our model	45%	26%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Yaypan Fergana	Fardu Ferghana
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	25/13/63%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +4’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	11	9	2	0	27	8	29
2	Shurtan	11	7	2	2	16	11	23
3	FC Lochin	11	6	3	2	20	9	21
4	Kattaqorgon	11	6	3	2	13	7	21
5	Gazalkent	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
6	Metallurg Bekabad	11	5	3	3	25	11	18
7	Fardu Ferghana	11	4	4	3	15	20	16
8	Olympic Mobiuz	11	4	3	4	21	13	15
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	11	4	1	6	14	22	13
10	Respublika FA	11	3	3	5	13	12	12
11	Jayxun	11	3	2	6	9	17	11
12	BuxDu	11	3	1	7	9	21	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	11	1	1	9	6	25	4
14	PFC Terdu	11	1	1	9	8	23	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Yaypan Fergana	Fardu Ferghana
Kattaqorgon	1-2 L	0-3 L
Olympic Mobiuz	1-6 L	2-1 W
BuxDu	1-2 L	1-1 D
Respublika FA	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Orol Nukus	1-5 L	0-2 L
Gazalkent	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fardu Ferghana (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Yaypan Fergana

LLLWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
14/06	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-6	7	5	L
05/06	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
31/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
27/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
22/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
13/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
06/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	1-5	1	2	L
30/04	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-2	5	8	L

Fardu Ferghana

DDLDDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
08/06	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	0-7	6	5	L
04/06	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
29/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
12/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
06/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
01/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
21/04	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
15/04	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Yaypan Fergana vs Fardu Ferghana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Yaypan Fergana win (45%). Probabilities: FC Yaypan Fergana 45%, draw 26%, Fardu Ferghana 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Yaypan Fergana vs Fardu Ferghana?

The model expects 3.08 goals (FC Yaypan Fergana 1.71 · Fardu Ferghana 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Yaypan Fergana vs Fardu Ferghana?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.