Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: BuxDu vs Gazalkent

Team pages: BuxDu · Gazalkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

BuxDu1.22

Gazalkent2.06

1X2

21% 23% 56%

BuxDu Draw Gazalkent

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

BuxDu 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Gazalkent 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BuxDu 0–1 Gazalkent (1 last)

Gazalkent3-0BuxDu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BuxDu 1450 · Gazalkent 1554

	BuxDu	Draw	Gazalkent
Our model	21%	23%	56%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gazalkent (rating 1450 vs 1554).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BuxDu	Gazalkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/38/38%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:10 +41’	4.33	3.80	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BuxDu 0–0–1 Gazalkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Gazalkent	3-0	BuxDu

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	13	11	2	0	30	8	35
2	Shurtan	13	9	2	2	22	14	29
3	Kattaqorgon	13	8	3	2	17	7	27
4	Fardu Ferghana	13	6	4	3	21	21	22
5	FC Lochin	13	6	4	3	20	14	22
6	Gazalkent	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
7	Olympic Mobiuz	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
8	Metallurg Bekabad	13	6	3	4	30	12	21
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	13	4	2	7	14	23	14
10	Jayxun	13	4	2	7	15	20	14
11	Respublika FA	13	3	3	7	14	21	12
12	BuxDu	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	13	1	1	11	7	31	4
14	PFC Terdu	13	1	1	11	9	30	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BuxDu	Gazalkent
Shurtan	2-4 L	2-0 W
Jayxun	1-5 L	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	2-0 W	2-1 W
PFC Terdu	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Lochin	0-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gazalkent (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

BuxDu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-4	1	3	L
31/07	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-5	1	7	L
24/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/06	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/06	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
31/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
26/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-4	2-6	0	0	L
22/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
06/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
30/04	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	1	2	L

Gazalkent

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	7-0	6	6	W
31/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
23/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	3-2	8	6	W
10/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	0	3	W
03/06	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
20/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-5	3	7	L
15/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
06/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BuxDu vs Gazalkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gazalkent win (56%). Probabilities: BuxDu 21%, draw 23%, Gazalkent 56%.

How many goals are expected in BuxDu vs Gazalkent?

The model expects 3.28 goals (BuxDu 1.22 · Gazalkent 2.06), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BuxDu vs Gazalkent?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.