Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 10/08, 16:00

Prediction: Metallurg Bekabad vs FC Yaypan Fergana

Team pages: Metallurg Bekabad · FC Yaypan Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Metallurg Bekabad2.43

FC Yaypan Fergana0.9

1X2

71% 18% 12%

Metallurg Bekabad Draw FC Yaypan Fergana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Metallurg Bekabad 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Yaypan Fergana 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Metallurg Bekabad 1–0 FC Yaypan Fergana (1 last)

FC Yaypan Fergana1-2Metallurg Bekabad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metallurg Bekabad 1523 · FC Yaypan Fergana 1440

	Metallurg Bekabad	Draw	FC Yaypan Fergana
Our model	70%	18%	11%
Market	71%	17%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metallurg Bekabad (rating 1523 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metallurg Bekabad	FC Yaypan Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.4	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.25

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:22 +5’	1.27	5.25	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metallurg Bekabad 1–0–0 FC Yaypan Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	FC Yaypan Fergana	1-2 HT 1-1	Metallurg Bekabad

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	13	11	2	0	30	8	35
2	Shurtan	13	9	2	2	22	14	29
3	Kattaqorgon	13	8	3	2	17	7	27
4	Fardu Ferghana	13	6	4	3	21	21	22
5	FC Lochin	13	6	4	3	20	14	22
6	Gazalkent	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
7	Olympic Mobiuz	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
8	Metallurg Bekabad	13	6	3	4	30	12	21
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	13	4	2	7	14	23	14
10	Jayxun	13	4	2	7	15	20	14
11	Respublika FA	13	3	3	7	14	21	12
12	BuxDu	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	13	1	1	11	7	31	4
14	PFC Terdu	13	1	1	11	9	30	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metallurg Bekabad	FC Yaypan Fergana
FC Lochin	5-0 W	0-0 D
Fardu Ferghana	7-0 W	0-1 L
Kattaqorgon	1-1 D	1-2 L
Olympic Mobiuz	1-1 D	1-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Metallurg Bekabad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
31/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
23/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
08/06	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	7-0	5	5	W
04/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
31/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
10/05	AGMK Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	3-3	7	5	D
05/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
30/04	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-1	0	1	D

FC Yaypan Fergana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/07	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
25/07	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
14/06	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-6	7	5	L
05/06	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
31/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
27/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
22/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
13/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-4	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metallurg Bekabad vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metallurg Bekabad win (71%). Probabilities: Metallurg Bekabad 71%, draw 18%, FC Yaypan Fergana 12%.

How many goals are expected in Metallurg Bekabad vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Metallurg Bekabad 2.43 · FC Yaypan Fergana 0.9), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Metallurg Bekabad vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.